Yes indeed, the campaigning for 2010 elections is hot and heavy. Okay, not really. But, while republicans are busy licking their wounds and playing the blame game, they're surely looking to 2010. With that, Markos had Research 2000 poll possible matchups between Salazar, Tancredo, and John Elway. First the general results.
Salazar (D) 49
Elway (R) 38
Salazar (D) 51
Tancredo (R) 37
But more interesting are the approval ratings. You can get the real data here or keep reading to see what I think it all means.
This poll found Salazar with 48% approval, unfavorable was 41%, with no opinion at 11%. The July Public Policy Polling, uh, poll, had more than twice that percentage of people who didn't approve or disapprove. I've been wondering what it all means (on this and a number of other Salazar-unrelated things), but I think I found the answer in how these questions are asked.
For Research 2000:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Salazar? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
The wishy washy choice is "no opinion"
And PPP:
Do you approve or disapprove of Democratic Senator Ken Salazar's job performance? If you approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you're not sure, press 3.
If someone asked me to state my preference for Chunky Monkey or Cookie Dough ice cream it would be tough for me to pick as I like them both. So, my answer surely isn't "no opinion", but if I'm not sure which to emphatically say I want right now, the answer could truly be "not sure". I believe this is the reason the PPP's poll had 26% "not sure" for Salazar.
So with a properly formed set of questions Salazar rates just under 50% which has been described before as the cutoff for vulnerability. However, it's not like there's anyone around to really challenge him. Tancredo scored 41% favorably. But, Elway? Even less than that at 37%. However, here another 37% have "no opinion". Remember, while these questions are pretty open ended, it's clear the pollster is asking about the favorability of each person in office, not as quarterback or as the former face of a line of Ford dealerships. Maybe that no opinion reflects how we pretty much don't hear anything from Elway in politics expect other people bringing him up.
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight crunches the math and ranks our Senate race at 12 on his list of possible seat swings:
12. Colorado (D-Salazar)
Approval/Favorability Ratings: Ken Salazar (D)
Poll Date Approve Disapprove Net
PPP 8/6/08 39 36 +3
SurveyUSA 11/2006 56 36 +20
This remains one of the theoretically more viable pickup opportunities for Republicans, especially if the background political environment beings to swing in their favor, but Colorado is another state that's turning blue in a hurry, and there's no one Republican opponent that Colorado Democrats seem particularly worried about. Ex-Gov Bill Owens might be the closest thing to an exception, but he's declined his last couple of chances to run for national office.
"Most of Obama's gains over the last three weeks can be traced to the Hispanic vote.
Where his lead among those voters was previously 57-36, he has now upped it to 71-21."
Rasmussen's website is being sad right now, so depressingly I get the info from Fox News:
In Colorado, Obama now holds a six-point advantage, 51 percent to 45 percent. Last week, Obama had a one-point edge in the state and two weeks ago McCain was narrowly ahead.
This same poll had it 49-48 Obama last time it was run on September 28th. The new poll also has non-affiliated voters breaking 53-39 for Obama.
This has to translate to good news for Udall as well.
Update: Link to Rasmussen. Also, this is the highest Obama has been in the history of this poll.
September 23, 2008 - Change Puts Obama Up Slightly In Four Battlegrounds, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds --- COLORADO: Obama 49 - McCain 45 MICHIGAN: Obama 48 - McCain 44 MINNESOTA: Obama 47 - McCain 45 WISCONSIN: Obama 49 - McCain 42
Public Policy Polling will be releasing results of their Colorado poll shortly, and is going to show Obama ahead as well. I will update this with the numbers as soon as they are released, but PPP offers this teaser now. Remember how Rudy, then Huckabee, then Romney, then Fred Thompson, were all the exciting saviors of the Republican Party for fifteen minutes? McCain got where he is by just outlasting their popularity. The more people got to know them the worse they looked. The same thing is happenng with Palin.
If this EMILY's list poll posted by Colorado Pols is to be believed:
Democrat Betsy Markey leads Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave in CD-4 by a surprisingly strong 47-38 margin:
Not only do a majority give her negative job performance ratings (31% positive, 55% negative), they don't like her very much. The number who offer her favorable ratings (40%) is equal to those who say they do not like her (40%). Making her struggle more difficult, twice the number of Coloradans have "very unfavorable" (34%) than "very favorable" (17%) impressions of the incumbent.
Despite the Republican registration advantage in this district, Musgrave is currently running behind Markey right now. In fact, Markey enjoys a nine-digit lead over her opponent and she pulls in 47% of the vote, making her a strong contender against her opponent. Less than one in five (15%) are undecided.
Could the Colorado Delegation go 5-2 for the Democrats?
That's a 7-point swing from this outfit in just a week.
Then, for Capitalism taking it in the pants, I turn to one of my favorite financial bloggers, Barry Ritholtz of Big Picture:
Here is tonite's theater of the absurd SEC headline:
SEC intends to temporarily ban short selling, but it's not clear if the commission has approved the move. Cox is briefing congressional leaders. Separately, the government is seeking congressional authority to buy distressed assets.
This is nothing short of a total panic by people who have no clue what they are doing. And to think, I mocked Russia for being a nation run by market commies.
This is the ultimate bailout attempt, which will have repercussions far far beyond our imaginations:
1) We suffer a loss of Market Integrity; The US is now a Banana Republic
2) Blatant market manipulation: this is nothing more than an attempt to force markets higher;
3) 60 days prior to a presidential election? This is a none-too-subtle attempt to influence the elections -- especially coming on top of the Fannie/Freddie bailout;<
4) The coming pop will create a huge air pocket, ultimately leading to us crashing much lower;
5) Expect a huge increase in volatility -- upwards first, then down;
We Are A Nation of Morons, led by complete Idiots, making us complicit in our own self destruction.
We're entering the silly season. After the Schaffer campaign released it's internal poll showing Udall ahead by 3. The NRSC released another internal poll showing Udall still ahead but by only one point. The timing seems weird, but it appears the Post nor the Rocky reported on the first poll. Looks to me like the first poll's reporting got swamped in DNC coverage.
Wadhams' take is predictable:
Wadhams also said the numbers were "solid and reliable because (David Hill) has probably done more campaigns in Colorado in the last 18 years than anybody in America.
"He's a very reputable pollster who'll not tell a client what the client wants to hear; he tells the client what is real and what truly exists," Wadhams said.
So today, the Udall camp releases their own internal poll showing Udall up by 11 (Udall holds a 45%-34% lead over Schaffer.)
press release:
"These results indicate that the attack campaign being waged by several out-of-state groups on Bob Schaffer's behalf has been strikingly ineffective so far," said Paul Harstad, CEO of Harstad Strategic Research. "In fact, to the contrary, Mark Udall's position has actually strengthened on the exact issues these ads have sought to attack him on."
"Coloradans are looking at the record and seeing that Mark Udall stands with them, while Bob Schaffer consistently stands with the Bush administration, the big oil companies, and corrupt lobbyists like Jack Abramoff," said Udall spokeswoman Tara Trujillo. "Schaffer and his front groups are spending millions of dollars to hide that record, but Coloradans aren't being fooled."
The poll of 752 likely Colorado voters was conducted September 7th through the 9th, and has a 3.6% margin of error. Harstad Strategic Research has a long record of work in Colorado campaigns and issues, including serving as pollster to Senator Ken Salazar.
But Schaffer manager Dick Wadhams called the numbers "fictitious," pointing to recent polls by the Schaffer campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee showing the race in a dead heat.
How surprising Wadhams would say his poll is honest and correct and the other is fictitious.
If we average the polls, Udall by 11 and Udall by 1, we get a 6 point advantage. We can also look at the aggregate of all polling done on this race at pollster.com where Udall is ahead by about 4, which has both NRSC internals but not yet Udall's internal poll.
Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's (R-Colo.) re-election appears to be in peril a little more than two months before Election Day, according to a new poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call.
The survey also found the presidential contest between presumptive Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) and presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) was essentially tied in Musgrave's eastern Colorado 4th district - territory that has historically been a Republican bastion.
Democrats descended on Denver this week for their nominating convention as a way of signaling their commitment to making the Centennial State - and the Mountain West as a whole - competitive in the presidential race. The poll done for Roll Call seemed to bear that out, as McCain led Obama by just 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
Meanwhile, Musgrave trailed Democratic challenger Betsy Markey 50 percent to 43 percent in the poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call. Seven percent remained undecided. In an equally troubling sign for Musgrave, 51 percent of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of the three-term Congresswoman, while 31 percent viewed her favorably.
The poll of 618 likely voters was taken Aug. 22-24. It had a 4-point margin of error.
The survey found that Markey had a big lead among female voters, 53 percent to 38 percent. The two women were essentially tied among male voters.
More importantly, Markey had a huge lead in two voter groups that will be essential in deciding the election: independents and moderates. She led by 30 points among independent voters, 59 percent to 29 percent, and by 41 points among self-described moderates, 67 percent to 26 percent. Musgrave will have to close the gap in those two groups in order to have a chance at making the race competitive heading into Election Day.
Since this poll has Obama down by two points, compared with other polls that have him even or up slightly, Markey's margin might even be bigger than 7%.
Moderates and Independents abandoning the wingnut Musgrave is great news -- let's hope it's a trend!
Coordinated Campaign volunteers, tighten your shoelaces and go knock on doors!
Mark Udall(D) has gained on his Republican Opponent in Colorado's open US Senate seat. The current Senator, Republican Wayne Allard, who is consistently ranked as one of the worst Senators in the nation, is retiring.
The Rasmussen Poll shows an improvment for Udall, he now leads 47 (47), 41 (43) over scandal plagued Schaffer. With 'leaners', he goes over the half-way mark: 50 (49), 42 (46). (July numbers in parens).
Rasmussen goes on to explain:
A Udall win could mean more bad news for the Republicans in the Senate, who are at risk of losing even more seats to the Democrats this fall. Other Republican seats at risk include Alaska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Kansas, Virginia and Kentucky.
Swift-boat money will soon be flying into the state for Club for Growth ads. But there have already been some pretty outrageous negative ads against Udall by third-parties, so I am unsure how this will affect the race.
UPDATE: Thanks to Magster over at DKos, there is a poll out in the Rocky Mountain News That shows Udall up 44-38. The article pretty much states that this campaign is about to go Nuclear. I'm holding the poll suspect because it has third-party candidates, one receiving 5% of the vote.
UPDATE2: Ras is not so kind to Obama. McCain is up 49-48 with leaners. Obama seems to slipping away in this state. Hopefully, the convention will turn things around.
CBS News 4 has Udall ahead in a Keith Frederick poll:
In the Senate race, Congressman Mark Udall received support from 48 percent of those surveyed, with 39 percent saying they support former Congressman Bob Schaffer, and 15 percent undecided.
As the presidential race has tilted a bit toward McCain, GOP Senate candidate Bob Schaffer has moved into a dead heat after trailing Democrat Mark Udall by 10 points a month ago," Brown said.
Meanwhile, Obama leads by 4 and trails by 2. I predict that at least one poll is wrong. My guess is the one that adds up to 102% might have some problems.
(I'll be on the Mario Solis Marich show later today. While we already set the topics we'll discuss as the State Convention and Senator Kennedy, I'm going to see if we can briefly mention this new polling.
And if you missed it Luis Toro who blogs here less than we'd like, should have just been on the show talking about the inappropriateness of AG Suthers playing council to the INDEPENDENT Ethics Commission. - promoted by johne)
After months of being within striking distance of one another in a variety of national polls, Mark Udall has opened a six-point lead over Bob Schaffer in a new poll released this morning.
In a Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 likely Colorado voters May 19, Udall, the Democratic nominee, drew support of 47 percent of respondents, compared to 41 percent for Republican Schaffer. The poll has a 4.5 percentage point margin of error.
The same survey shows Barack Obama with a six-point edge, 48-42, over John McCain among likely Colorado voters.
A poll done by Bennett, Petts & Normington has Democratic candidate Betsy Markey up over Marilyn Musgrave 43-36 with a 4.9% MOE. Yes it's early, yes the sample size was fairly small (400 respondents). Yes a Musgrave campaign poll had Musgrave up 47-42 a couple months back. Although I must say that a three-term incumbent "showcasing" a poll where she only garnered 47% is pretty pathetic, especially considering the district's voting pattern. Yes it's only May and November is quite a ways off.
What this poll results shows is that Marilyn Musgrave is in trouble again this year. She's going to have to work her butt off raising money and actually spending time in the district if she hopes to stave off another challenger. And this time around, the NRCC will have limited funds to bail her out.
Colorado is pivotal for the future of the progressive movement and for the Democratic Party for a variety of reasons. If you are a reader of this site, you probably already know this. The state is geographically centered in the middle of the inner West, an area of rapid growth in terms of local economies and population. There are multiple trends contributing to the 'red-to-blue' status of Colorado, and this is why the Democratic Convention will be held here this year.
I'm doing research for my class on the U.S. Senate race. I have found a wealth of information already on the different organizations, political factions, and issue groups in the state. What I am lacking right now is solid polling data.
Does anyone know where I can find current and past polling information on the Schaffer-Udall race--- or any related numbers on how key demographic groups are leaning politically that might lend some idea on how each group feels about the candidates?
Colorado appears to be a bellweather state AND a state in which the tide may be turning for Democrats. Yet it is a difficult state for Democrats to win. Remember, Bush beat Kerry by 5% in 2004 and Gore by 9% in 2000.
1992 1996 2000 2004
Rep 36 46 51 52
Dem 40 44 42 47
Ind 23 7 5 1
So the Democrats will have to scrap for Colorado and capitalize on the record turnout in the February caucuses.
John McCain is certainly the Republican's strongest candidate in 2008 given the national trend towards the Democrats over the past 4 years. Aside from the Iraq Albatross, (and Conservative columnist crocodile tears be damned) he is perceived as more moderate than all the candidates he bested in the primaries. While both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama can win the electoral count over McCain, Clinton's success depend's on some Eastern states, while Obama wins Michigan and does extremely well in a bunch of Red or Pink Central and Western states:
It is evident from this list that Obama's strength is in the West: He comfortably keeps Oregon (+8%) and Washington (+14%) blue, two states Clinton loses (-5% and -2% respectively) and he carries New Mexico (by 7% versus 4% for Clinton). He then picks up Nevada (by 5%, while Clinton loses by 8%) and Colorado (by 9%, while Clinton loses by 6%).
All of this we are used to seeing, as Obama's edge in Western states like Washington and Colorado has been among the only consistent electability results over the past few months. But the extent of his advantage is considerable -- especially when we take into account the incredible fact that he puts the mountain states -- some of the reddest in the country -- in play! He narrowly wins North Dakota (Clinton loses by 19%), gets two out of five electoral votes in Nebraska, trailing 45% to 42% and loses South Dakota by only 4%!
Below the fold is a detailed look into the political landscape in Colorado, suggesting that the Colorado Democratic Party and Politicians should grab onto Obama's coattails as hard as possible. Although I've sort of felt that Superdelegates have the right to vote their own conscience, once they look at the extraordinary map-changing possibilities in the West (Hell, an Obama-Richardson ticket might even take Texas!), then political strategy suggests that they'd be well-advised to get on the Obama bandwagon.
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