|
global warming effects 
Sun Jul 15, 2012 at 16:38:50 PM MST
|
|
From the top, I want to include important context for the research results I am presenting. This research is based on peak warming of only either 1.5°C or 2°C. It is my educated opinion that such goals are unrealistic. Prevention of warming past 2°C is no longer a viable option based on the globe's history of burning carbon-intensive fossil fuels as well as the medium- to long-term future, which doesn't promise much of a difference. Furthermore, as I have stated numerous times in the past year, policy discussion would be better served if scientists would conduct research on developments that are much likelier to occur and not the world they want to see (i.e., higher vs. lower emissions scenarios). That said, this research fulfills an important role in the overall discussion because I think some of the results can be used as a "floor" - conditions are likely to reach higher magnitudes than those found in this and similar papers.
Michiel Schaeffer, William Hare, Stefan Rahmstorf & Martin Vermeer's Nature paper was published on June 24, 2012. They examined sea-level rise in response to warming scenarios using a semi-empirical model. By 2100, global sea-level rise would be ~60cm above the 2000 level if global GHG emissions were zeroed by 2016. This is an obvious fantasy world, but it provides a useful benchmark for other scenarios the scientists examined. The reason sea-level rise would continue through the 21st century even if we haled emissions completely in the next 3-4 years is the response of the climate system to the anthropogenic forcing imparted on it through the 20th and early 21st centuries. If 1.5°C or 2°C warming is not exceeded, global sea-level rise would be 75-80cm above the 2000 level. The authors also report that unmitigated emissions could result in 100cm rise above 2000 levels. It is important to note that 20th century sea level rise has been estimated to be ~20cm. It doesn't require much thought to realize that the rate of sea-level rise has increased throughout the 20th century and continues to do so in the 21st. Moreover, it is clear that since we will most likely warm beyond 2°C, the 75-100cm projection can be viewed as a reasonable estimate for a "floor": actual sea-level rise could be greater than this.
|
|
There's More...
:: (0
Comments, 1016 words in story)
|
|
Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 15:22:14 PM MST
|
|
It's official: June 2012 was the hottest June on record in Denver, CO (dating back to 1872) with an average temperature of 75F, 7.6F above normal!
Yesterday's high of 101F added to the total number of days of 100F+ temperatures: to date, there are now 7. Last week, there were 5 days in a row of 100F+ heat, matching the all-time record for Denver. The streak included 2 105F readings, which tied for the all-time hottest temperature recorded for Denver. There was also a 100F+ reading a few days prior to that streak. For completeness, I want to point out that the 27th through 30th of June weren't much cooler: it was 97, 97, 98, and 99 on those four days, so we didn't miss 100 by much.
Here are a few pictures demonstrating the intensity and extent of the heat that not only affected Denver, but much of the High Plains prior to the impacts east of the Mississippi over the weekend:
|
|
There's More...
:: (4
Comments, 526 words in story)
|
|
Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:05:18 AM MST
|
|
According to data released by NASA and NOAA this month, June 2011 ranked among the top 10 warmest Junes on record: NASA recorded the 8th warmest June in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 7th warmest June in its dataset. The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which actually helps to reinforce the results from each other.
|
|
There's More...
:: (0
Comments, 423 words in story)
|
|
Wed May 11, 2011 at 13:02:58 PM MST
|
|
[Updated some explanations for clarity - WD]
If you encounter national news with any regularity, you've probably heard separate news stories that are very much connected. The first are the record wildfires plaguing Texas - while relatively few in number, the acreage they've burned has set a number of records. The wildfires are accompanied by record drought conditions. The extreme drought conditions cover a large majority (73.73%) of Texas as of May 3, 2011, as the figure below from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows. Exceptional drought conditions now affect a whopping 25.96% of Texas. No part of the state is doing better than abnormally dry this week, which is actually somewhat of an improvement over conditions a week ago.
|
|
There's More...
:: (0
Comments, 593 words in story)
|
|
Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 16:02:10 PM MST
|
Global warming is causing dramatic enough shifts in temperature and precipitation such that downstream effects are starting to show up across the globe. I picked up the following from an economics blog, but wanted to focus on the likely underlying causality to make a point about the future (source):
Dry conditions extending to Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado may cut crop yields in the U.S., the world's largest exporter, as too much moisture threatens fields in North Dakota and in Canada. Wheat futures in Chicago are up 50 percent in the past year, after drought in Russia and floods in Australia hurt output and sent global food prices surging. Wholesale beef reached a record this week, and the U.S. cattle herd in January was the smallest since 1958.
|
|
There's More...
:: (5
Comments, 186 words in story)
|
|
Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 15:04:49 PM MST
|
|
In my last 2 State of the Pole posts (Dec and Jan), I noted that the Hudson Bay, the Baffin and Newfoundland Seas and Canadian Archipelago region was witnessing something astonishing: sea ice was forming weeks to months late. I identified a leading cause for this condition: for the 2nd winter in a row, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation were registering historical negative values. When they're in their negative phase, both of these climatological phenomena allow arctic air to flow south and impact the U.S. and Europe because the polar jet stream weakens and meanders further south than it normally does. As colder air is allowed to move south, warmer air is allowed to move north. While the eastern U.S. and Europe have experienced a colder than normal winter along with more precipitation than normal, northeastern Canada has experienced the opposite: the warmest 30-day period in mid-winter on record. Of course, the fact that the Arctic has undergone rapid, significant changes in the past decade are also part of the reason for this occurrence. Our influence on the climate system has loaded the die. With each toss, there is a higher chance that extreme weather events will occur.
The climate change denial zombies love to point out snowstorms and cold air outbreaks in the U.S. during winter. They somehow think it means their patron saint James Inhofe was correct when he stated that global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind. While they're busy pointing out that yes, indeed, it does snow in winter, they try very hard to ignore the fact that seas that should be frozen by December 1st remain unfrozen in late January. Has it been cold along the eastern U.S.? Yes, 5-11°F below average for the 30-day period between 17 December 2010 to 15 January 2011. During that same time, however, northeastern Canada witnessed surface temperatures from 16°F to greater than 38°F above average - for 30 days! Recall that in my write-up of NASA's and NOAA's global temperature analysis for 2010, both agencies identified December as being among the 25 warmest Decembers on record globally. Despite one of the strongest La Ninas on record and a slow emergence from the sun's latest cycle minimum, December was still warm compared to over 100 years of global temperature records at 0.67°F above average. One of the drawbacks of looking at the global average is the possibility of masking averages that might indicate something important occurring over smaller regions - like northeast Canada.
|
|
There's More...
:: (2
Comments, 894 words in story)
|
|
Tue Dec 14, 2010 at 18:17:11 PM MST
|
|
A rather stunning piece of news was released by NASA earlier this week that received absolutely no attention by corporate stenographers. According to NASA, global average temperatures for November 2010 were higher than any other November in recorded history. Furthermore, the likelihood that 2010 will end up as the warmest calendar year on record to date increased. Recent months have seen consecutive 12-month periods rank as the hottest on record already. But people tend to think along calendar date lines, so perhaps 2010 ranking at or near the top of the recorded history list will help spur folks to action.
Let's start with November 2010 by itself. November's global average temperatures were 0.74C above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA. The warmest regions on Earth are exactly where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (think Arctic & Antarctic Circles). The past three months have a +0.63C temperature anomaly. And the latest 12-month period (Dec.2009-Nov.2010) had a +0.65C temperature anomaly, the warmest on record.
|
|
There's More...
:: (0
Comments, 380 words in story)
|
|
Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 11:41:16 AM MST
|
A set of papers were temporarily made available to the general public in advance of the COP16 meeting in Cancun. They present quite a sobering view on just how close we are to locking the planet into dangerous global warming scenarios. One of the papers has this critical set of statements:
The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 [industrialized] and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.
The significance of that first statement cannot be overstated. For the first time, a research group has made the assessment that, despite the climate research community's decades' worth of warnings, policy makers have nearly locked the globe into a significant warming scenario.
|
|
There's More...
:: (1
Comments, 417 words in story)
|
|
|
|
Squarestate.net is owned by Open Communications Colorado, LLC. and is not responsible for the opinions expressed outside of our own.
|
|
