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climate change effects 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:36:46 AM MST
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I haven't written about polar ice conditions for a few months due to lack of time thanks to school. Hopefully my time availability moving forward will be high enough to keep this series going.
The state of global polar sea ice area in early December 2011 has temporarily returned to near climatologically normal conditions (1979-2009). Arctic sea ice has recovered very quickly after starting the freeze season slowly and Antarctic sea ice is benefiting from weather conditions preventing extensive melt at the edges in much the same way as it did last year at the same time. Since my last post (covering August conditions), polar sea ice has generally recovered from an extensive deficit of negative 2 million sq. km. The long time that sea ice area spent near this dramatic condition is unprecedented in the modern era. Poor conditions established this development across the Arctic this year.
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Thu Aug 18, 2011 at 08:01:42 AM MST
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I'd bet a good number of metro area folks have heard the forecast for today: HOT! The record high of 98F for the day will likely be challenged. Here is the official forecast discussion from the Denver-Boulder NWS office this morning (sorry for the all-caps, it's what the NWS text products actually look like):
SHORT TERM...A HOT AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE STATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 2-3C OF WARMING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM 24 HOURS AGO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND THIS HAS ALREADY COMMENCED PER THE LATEST GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA. THIS ALL SUPPORTS RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT. DENVERS RECORD IS 98F SET IN 1986...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON WE SHOULDNT AT LEAST TIE THIS RECORD GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK WE COULD REACH 100F...AND IF WE DID THAT WOULD BE THE LATEST IN THE SEASON A 100F DEGREE READING HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST RECORDED 100F WAS ON AUGUST 16TH IN 2002.
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Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 15:52:17 PM MST
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Thanks to global cooling (not!), the eastern 3/4 of the U.S. was much warmer than normal in July 2011. In fact, Oklahoma set a record for the warmest month of any state in American history: an average of 88.9F. Which kind of makes sense, when you think about it. After all, it was the preeminent expert on climate, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R TB-OK), whose grandchildren built an igloo on the National Mall back in February 2010 - because mocking Al Gore is the top responsibility of a sitting U.S. Senator. Maybe his family should have spent less time making fun of things they can't or don't want to understand but more time praying for rain this summer. In the end, the solution is simple: stop polluting heat-trapping gases and the atmosphere will trap less heat! Imagine that!
Back to the state of U.S. climate in July 2011.
July 2011 was the fourth warmest July in NOAA's records: 77F. It was the fourth warmest month all time. Here is what that looks like graphically:
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Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:05:18 AM MST
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According to data released by NASA and NOAA this month, June 2011 ranked among the top 10 warmest Junes on record: NASA recorded the 8th warmest June in its dataset; NOAA recorded the 7th warmest June in its dataset. The two agencies have slightly different analysis techniques, which actually helps to reinforce the results from each other.
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Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:48:52 PM MST
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[Note: This post first appeared yesterday in partial form. This is the full post. My apologies.]
The state of global polar sea ice area at the beginning of June 2011 remains poor: well below climatological conditions (1979-2009) continue to persist.
Sea ice in the Arctic continues to track significantly below average, with the 3rd lowest readings for the month in the modern era. Antarctic sea ice recovered somewhat more quickly to normal conditions than was the case the month before. Global sea ice area has therefore remained near historical lows for an extended period of time this year. Within the last month, global sea ice area has finally improved from the 1 million sq. km. deficit from climatological conditions that characterized the first four months of 2011. To help put this in context, only 2006 and 2007 saw similar conditions. In 2007, the Arctic (and global) sea ice area fell to its lowest extent in modern history.
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Wed May 11, 2011 at 13:02:58 PM MST
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[Updated some explanations for clarity - WD]
If you encounter national news with any regularity, you've probably heard separate news stories that are very much connected. The first are the record wildfires plaguing Texas - while relatively few in number, the acreage they've burned has set a number of records. The wildfires are accompanied by record drought conditions. The extreme drought conditions cover a large majority (73.73%) of Texas as of May 3, 2011, as the figure below from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows. Exceptional drought conditions now affect a whopping 25.96% of Texas. No part of the state is doing better than abnormally dry this week, which is actually somewhat of an improvement over conditions a week ago.
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Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 15:55:28 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice area at the beginning of 2011 continues the trend present throughout most of 2010: well below climatological conditions (1979-2009). Sea ice in the Arctic continues to track far below average while Antarctic sea ice has tracked closer to average from above average the past couple of months. Overall, the rate at which Arctic sea ice is refreezing and Antarctic ice is melting is not out of the ordinary. The locations where freezing and melting is occurring is once again news this month. Global sea ice is rapidly decreasing, as is normal for this time of year due to Antarctic environmental conditions. The value of global sea ice area has already fallen below the average level of 16 million sq. km. The yearly absolute minimum should occur within the next month or so, at which time we'll be able to determine whether 2011's minimum is more like 2005, 2009 and 2010 (~15 million sq. km.) or whether 2011's minimum is more like 2006 and 2007 (~14.5 million sq. km.).
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Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 15:07:44 PM MST
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( - promoted by Fong)
[Updated to include more complete context and to provide a link showing what 10ft of sea level rise looks like.]
Until just a few years ago, scientists were unsure why the global energy budget seemed to indicate that an enormous amount of energy couldn't be accounted for. Incoming and outgoing radiation is fairly straightforward to measure and a simple energy budget is easy to calculate. Accounting for all of the movement of energy within Earth's climate system imposes a great deal of complexity into the process. Still, numerous attempts were made to try to track down what was growing into a very large amount of energy: was it erroneous measurements or calculations, or did we remain woefully ignorant of significant physical processes?
Then in 2009, two major papers were published that closed the majority of the unaccounted for energy in the climate system. The excess energy was being stored as heat in the ocean, specifically the deep ocean. The volume of the Earth's oceans is estimated to be 1.332×109 km3. That is obviously a very large volume within which energy can be stored. What has happened over the course of the past century or so is warmer and warmer water has been forced down to the bottom of the world's oceans. Usually, warm water rises, but the water in question is just above the freezing point of fresh water. At those temperatures, salinity has an increased role in controlling density. Water sinks when sea ice forms because sea ice is made up of only pure water, leaving excess salt in the remaining ocean water. As the salinity increases, the density also increases. Water with higher density than what is surrounding it sinks and then is transported by ocean currents around the world.
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Tue Dec 14, 2010 at 18:17:11 PM MST
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A rather stunning piece of news was released by NASA earlier this week that received absolutely no attention by corporate stenographers. According to NASA, global average temperatures for November 2010 were higher than any other November in recorded history. Furthermore, the likelihood that 2010 will end up as the warmest calendar year on record to date increased. Recent months have seen consecutive 12-month periods rank as the hottest on record already. But people tend to think along calendar date lines, so perhaps 2010 ranking at or near the top of the recorded history list will help spur folks to action.
Let's start with November 2010 by itself. November's global average temperatures were 0.74C above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA. The warmest regions on Earth are exactly where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (think Arctic & Antarctic Circles). The past three months have a +0.63C temperature anomaly. And the latest 12-month period (Dec.2009-Nov.2010) had a +0.65C temperature anomaly, the warmest on record.
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Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 11:41:16 AM MST
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A set of papers were temporarily made available to the general public in advance of the COP16 meeting in Cancun. They present quite a sobering view on just how close we are to locking the planet into dangerous global warming scenarios. One of the papers has this critical set of statements:
The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 [industrialized] and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.
The significance of that first statement cannot be overstated. For the first time, a research group has made the assessment that, despite the climate research community's decades' worth of warnings, policy makers have nearly locked the globe into a significant warming scenario.
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Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 15:49:58 PM MST
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(I know it's a couple weeks later than October 4th. The details are relevant as of that date or earlier. Hopefully next month's will be "on time". - promoted by WeatherDem)
The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of October 2010 was once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent was far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent wass above average, but not nearly so much as was the case in the Arctic. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent fell to ~17.5 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
This post will mostly concentrate on the extremely poor conditions found in the Arctic this fall. Antarctic conditions are not as extreme, largely and ironically thanks to the ozone hole over the continent which has kept stratospheric temperatures much cooler than they otherwise would be. Eventually, our forcing leading to global warming will overwhelm the ozone hole cooling effect (and the ozone hole will gradually be "healed" anyway), which will cause long-term changes to Antarctica just like the Arctic.
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Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 17:11:10 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of September 2010 is once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent is far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent is above average, but not nearly so much as was the case at the beginning of August. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent has fallen to ~18 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
Each month and each year that goes by provides additional proof that the Arctic has entered into a new state; a different state than has existed for 1,000 years or more. Monthly and yearly weather conditions have varied considerably over the past few years, as one would expect, but the end result has been nearly the same regardless of any specific condition: Arctic sea ice is declining year-over-year. It is declining at a rate that exceeds scientific estimates from just a few years ago. Climate change deniers keep prattling on about increasing sea ice, in direct contradiction to the physical realities before them. I think most of the areas that have sea ice this September will not have sea ice by 2020. Specific weather or geologic events might delay the year that occurs slightly, but I don't think it will take too much longer to witness an Arctic Ocean that is essentially ice-free.
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Sat Jul 31, 2010 at 07:21:42 AM MST
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Climate change is a monumental problem. I characterize it by saying that it is our species' greatest confirmed threat. Nuclear war? Possible but unlikely in any given decade. An asteroid/comet collision with Earth resulting in an extinction level event? Possible but unlikely in any given decade. I would, however, rate the asteroid/comet threat above nuclear war. One day, the former will happen, we just don't know when; the latter can be held off and eliminated based on our own decision making. In a way, climate change combines aspects of both of these threats. Climate change (at a level that will challenge our civilizations) is both possible and likely in a given decade; it is currently happening and its magnitude will only increase each decade during the rest of this century unless and until we decide to do something about it.
It should not be surprising then that, given the sheer magnitude of catastrophic climate change, solutions addressing it are also monumental in scale. That's the root of why so many climate change activists have been calling for a "climate-Manhattan Project" or a "climate Apollo Project". My view on climate change actions has shifted somewhat from thinking a bunch of personal actions will eventually accumulate enough inertia to reduce our climate forcing to recognizing that the number of actions will require large-scale policy shifts - something that requires governments to act. That's why the U.S. Senate's recent failure to seriously address this developing crisis is so maddening. The status quo approach to policy will not work with climate change, mostly because we're dealing with physical systems that respond to forcing, not people's tender egos and greed.
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Sun Jul 25, 2010 at 16:54:55 PM MST
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If you follow this policy topic, by no doubt you've already heard or read somewhere that elected Democrats have decided not to even try to put together a climate and energy bill in 2010. I don't know when they think they'll take it up. I don't think they know when they'll take it up. What I do know right now is outside of Nancy Pelosi, a number of Democratic "leaders" have done anything but lead and should be voted out of office (or positions of responsibility) as soon as possible. Sen. Reid. Sen. Schumer and Sen. Durbin are on that list. President Obama very well could be.
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Sat Jul 03, 2010 at 07:00:00 AM MST
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I meant to cross-post this earlier in the week when I finished writing it for my blog. Oh well - hopefully it makes for some interested weekend reading.
The June 2010 issue of Scientific American had two climate-related pieces in it that I thought were worth discussing.
Polar Meltdown
The first dealt with 12 potential events, their likelihood of occurring by 2050 and some of their effects. The front cover lists 'Polar Meltdown' last among the 12. The article has 'Polar Meltdown" as the 8th event, despite its likelihood (which the author places between '50-50' and 'almost certain'); I don't really understand how they decided to organize the events. I mention these details first because more of the general public reads Scientific American than journals or even climate-related blogs. Given the nature of the effects - vastly more negative than positive - I would personally prefer to see this catastrophic event listed first both on the front cover and in the article since every day we don't reduce our emissions means a polar meltdown becomes more and more likely. Interestingly, their online version has this event first, which is good news.
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Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 11:04:25 AM MST
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Word came yesterday of an island in the Bay of Bengal that has quietly slipped beneath rising seas. New Moore Island was a rocky island that was 2 miles long and 1.5 miles wide. This isn't the first island to succumb to rising sea levels, nor will it be the last, especially since we continue to belch greenhouse gas pollution into the atmosphere. Indeed, 10 additional islands in the same area continue to face submersion in the near future. This news isn't a surprise to any reputable scientist who has studied climate change, nor to any activist who has followed the state of the science.
Also unsurprisingly, Sen. James Inhofe's family was not photographed on New Moore Island constructing a building in further efforts to misinform the fringe anti-science crowd. I'm sure the lunatic Senator would cite his favorite conspiracy of global economic domination as the real topic to be discussed. It wasn't his island that disappeared, after all. You'll also note that the disappearing islands don't garner much corporate media attention. Since the stenographers look for controversy, there must be a lack of dimwits who are willing to go record disputing these events.
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