State of the Poles - Jan 2012: Arctic Ice Near Historic Lows; Antarctic Ice Above Average

by: WeatherDem

Sun Jan 22, 2012 at 11:04:34 AM MST

Climate Change Basics - Energy & Projections

by: WeatherDem

Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 10:51:11 AM MST

Energy Content

First, here are two views of the energy content in the climate system.  The first is from the IPCC's WGI Technical Summary:

Source: IPCC AR4 Figure TS.15.  Energy content changes in different components of the Earth for two periods (1961-2003 (blue) and 1993-2003 (burgundy)).

State of the Poles - Dec 2011: Arctic Ice Continues Low; Antarctic Ice Above Average

by: WeatherDem

Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:36:46 AM MST

The state of global polar sea ice area in early December 2011 has temporarily returned to near climatologically normal conditions (1979-2009).  Arctic sea ice has recovered very quickly after starting the freeze season slowly and Antarctic sea ice is benefiting from weather conditions preventing extensive melt at the edges in much the same way as it did last year at the same time.  Since my last post (covering August conditions), polar sea ice has generally recovered from an extensive deficit of negative 2 million sq. km.  The long time that sea ice area spent near this dramatic condition is unprecedented in the modern era.  Poor conditions established this development across the Arctic this year.

2010: Largest Increase in CO2 Emissions On Record: Actions To Date Insufficient

by: WeatherDem

Fri Nov 04, 2011 at 12:44:32 PM MST

This graph encapsulates the importance of this news item:

What this graph shows is the observations of emissions (as calculated by the IEA) represented by the black curve and 5 of the 6 emissions scenarios used by the IPCC AR4 in colored lines.  The SRES begin in 2000, which was the starting year used for future simulations in the AR4.  You can clearly see the effects of the partial collapse of the global economy in 2009 emissions: they went from higher than the worst-case scenario to the middle of the pack.

In 2010, however, emissions jumped back up to the top of the pack, almost as if 2009 never even happened.  I would be willing to bet the 2011 numbers will demonstrate a further increase.

Hottest Summer For One State In U.S. History X2

by: WeatherDem

Thu Sep 08, 2011 at 21:28:34 PM MST

It was so hot that Texas and Oklahoma set the U.S. record for the 1st and 2nd hottest summers: 86.8F and 86.5F, respectively, beating out Oklahoma's 1934 record (set during the Dust Bowl years) of 85.2F.  To be clear, from June through August, the average of all the temperatures taken at the top of every hour came out to above 86 degrees.  Oh, Louisiana's 2011 summer now ranks 4th warmest all-time at 84.5F.

When records from the previous hottest period in the nation's history are falling, it's time to pay attention.  Instead of natural variability playing the primary role, the heat wave this year has been boosted by the altered background state.

Possible Record Heat In Denver Area Today

by: WeatherDem

Thu Aug 18, 2011 at 08:01:42 AM MST

SHORT TERM...A HOT AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY A BIT OVER THE STATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  MOST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 2-3C OF WARMING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING AND THIS HAS ALREADY COMMENCED PER THE LATEST GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA.  THIS ALL SUPPORTS RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT.  DENVERS RECORD IS 98F SET IN 1986...AND AT THIS POINT SEE NO REASON WE SHOULDNT AT LEAST TIE THIS RECORD GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK WE COULD REACH 100F...AND IF WE DID THAT WOULD BE THE LATEST IN THE SEASON A 100F DEGREE READING HAS BEEN OBSERVED.  THE LATEST RECORDED 100F WAS ON AUGUST 16TH IN 2002.

Eastern 3/4 Of U.S. Roasted In July 2011

by: WeatherDem

Tue Aug 09, 2011 at 15:52:17 PM MST

Back to the state of U.S. climate in July 2011.

July 2011 was the fourth warmest July in NOAA's records: 77F.  It was the fourth warmest month all time.  Here is what that looks like graphically:

Obama Administration to Polar Bear Scientist/Truth Teller - Shut up, and you are suspended!

by: wade norris

Sat Jul 30, 2011 at 17:32:28 PM MST

It was seen as one of the most distressing effects of climate change ever recorded: polar bears dying of exhaustion after being stranded between melting patches of Arctic sea ice.
But now the government scientist who first warned of the threat to polar bears in a warming Arctic has been suspended and his work put under official investigation for possible scientific misconduct.
Charles Monnett, a wildlife biologist, oversaw much of the scientific work for the government agency that has been examining drilling in the Arctic. He managed about $50m (£30.5m) in research projects.
Some question why Monnett, employed by the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement, has been suspended at this moment. The Obama administration has been accused of hounding the scientist so it can open up the fragile region to drilling by Shell and other big oil companies.

NASA & NOAA: June 2011 Among Top 10 Warmest On Record

by: WeatherDem

Thu Jul 21, 2011 at 10:05:18 AM MST

Economic Short-Sightedness & The Environment: Canadian Tar Sands Oil

by: WeatherDem

Fri Jul 15, 2011 at 10:55:05 AM MST

The U.S. State Department apparently has been working to alleviate concerns of parties in Canada interested in transporting tar sands oil from Alberta to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries.  This wouldn't change the balance of what gets processed in the U.S. very much, but one of the arguments for doing this would be to decrease the amount of oil processed from unstable regions (i.e. the Middle East).  The U.S. State Department, in 2009, helped work on this and other messaging for pro-dirty energy interests.  That would be the Obama State Department, headed by Hillary Clinton.  Obama has taken some actions which can be characterized as good in dealing with the threat of climate change.  Unfortunately, this isn't the only action he's taken which can be characterized as bad.

Did Global Climate Change Abet the Yellowstone River Oil Spill?

by: saindenver

Sat Jul 09, 2011 at 10:13:02 AM MST

The theory is that climate change is causing unusual flooding. That affects pipelines that were once thought to be buried safely underground, but close to river banks. Investigators into the Yellowstone spill have attributed that reason for the 42,000 gallon leak that is mucking up an area of the beloved national park in Montana.
...
Unusual river flooding causes more severe erosion around river banks, exposing buried objects at a faster than expected rate. Rocks and boulders knocked loose by the flooding can bash against pipelines and knock holes in them, causing massive spills. It's just this kind of incident that investigators suspect caused the Yellowstone oil spill.

However, one would have to be able to show that warming is responsible for the flooding and not a within-norms wet year.  I think it's something that should be investigated and questioned when we discuss warming and the effects on our lives.  

If it is, there is going to be some pretty heavy investment in shoring up pipelines and other transportation-related industries and those will bring jobs. So, there is something positive about all this, too.  

Climate Change Basics - Gases, Forcing & Surface Temperature

by: WeatherDem

Thu Jul 07, 2011 at 15:43:08 PM MST

First, here is a graphic of changes in greenhouse gases from ice core and modern observational data, spanning the time period of 20,000 years ago through current:

The portion of this graph I'd like to focus on is the upper left quadrant displaying the time series of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.  First, note is the transition from ~180ppm 20,000 years ago to between 260 and 280ppm.  This transition helped bring the last interglacial period to an end.  Of greater import is the more recent transition from 280ppm to 380ppm (as of ~2005; current concentrations are ~390ppm).

Globe's Oceans At Risk Of Mass Extinction

by: WeatherDem

Tue Jun 21, 2011 at 15:53:31 PM MST

"The findings are shocking," Dr. Alex Rogers, IPSO's scientific director, said in a statement released by the group. "This is a very serious situation demanding unequivocal action at every level. We are looking at consequences for humankind that will impact in our lifetime, and worse, our children's and generations beyond that."

East Coast Heat Wave Preview Of New Normal

by: WeatherDem

Fri Jun 10, 2011 at 07:33:18 AM MST

State of the Poles - June 2011: Arctic Near Record Low; Antarctic Normal

by: WeatherDem

Tue Jun 07, 2011 at 12:48:52 PM MST

The state of global polar sea ice area at the beginning of June 2011 remains poor: well below climatological conditions (1979-2009) continue to persist.

Sea ice in the Arctic continues to track significantly below average, with the 3rd lowest readings for the month in the modern era.  Antarctic sea ice recovered somewhat more quickly to normal conditions than was the case the month before.  Global sea ice area has therefore remained near historical lows for an extended period of time this year.  Within the last month, global sea ice area has finally improved from the 1 million sq. km. deficit from climatological conditions that characterized the first four months of 2011.  To help put this in context, only 2006 and 2007 saw similar conditions.  In 2007, the Arctic (and global) sea ice area fell to its lowest extent in modern history.

USAToday Compares Climate Change Deniers To Birthers

by: Bill Egnor AKA Something The Dog Said

Tue May 24, 2011 at 06:40:44 AM MST

Is there a pent up wave of sanity ready to overtop the Republican/Teahadist/Fox dam of reality denial? If you are a glass-half-full person like myself, then you might think so. We have seen the utter collapse of the Birther movement since the president released his long form birth certificate. We are seeing a vast majority of the nation rejecting the idea that we need to lower taxes on the wealthy, especially if it means messing with Medicare and Medicaid.

The reality that gay citizens are really no different from any other citizen and should not be singled out for different treatment is gaining strength both in the courts and the public. Recent decisions in courts have demolished, as a finding of fact, most of the arguments against adoption and marriage for gay citizens. In the world of public opinion the issue of marriage equality is polling above 50% for the first time and shows no sign of going the other way.

Today we see another sign that things may be on the change. USAToday has published and editorial that is comparing climate change deniers to Birthers. This is a big step because the denial of climate change has been going into high gear among Republicans and while it is to be expected in that many of the positions of the modern Republican party are flatly contrary to reality, the numbers of them have an affect on public sentiment that allows these kinds of things a legitimacy they do not deserve

Record Drought, Wildfires & Record Flooding in U.S. = New Normal

by: WeatherDem

Wed May 11, 2011 at 13:02:58 PM MST

If you encounter national news with any regularity, you've probably heard separate news stories that are very much connected.  The first are the record wildfires plaguing Texas - while relatively few in number, the acreage they've burned has set a number of records.  The wildfires are accompanied by record drought conditions.  The extreme drought conditions cover a large majority (73.73%) of Texas as of May 3, 2011, as the figure below from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows.  Exceptional drought conditions now affect a whopping 25.96% of Texas.  No part of the state is doing better than abnormally dry this week, which is actually somewhat of an improvement over conditions a week ago.

Global Warming's Agriculture Impacts

by: WeatherDem

Sun Mar 27, 2011 at 16:02:10 PM MST

Dry conditions extending to Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado may cut crop yields in the U.S., the world's largest exporter, as too much moisture threatens fields in North Dakota and in Canada. Wheat futures in Chicago are up 50 percent in the past year, after drought in Russia and floods in Australia hurt output and sent global food prices surging. Wholesale beef reached a record this week, and the U.S. cattle herd in January was the smallest since 1958.

Earthquakes and Climate Change

by: wade norris

Sat Mar 12, 2011 at 12:30:42 PM MST

The theory is that while Earthquakes on different Tectonic plates do not cause others to occur, for instance the Samoan and Indonesian quakes happened within one day of each other, they can be correlated to other quakes and seismic activity - specifically to 'glacial quakes' caused by fast melting and moving multi-ton glaciers on Greenland.

It's been nearly 2 years since then, let's reconsider this theory, and remember, 2 years is not even a blink of an eye in Geologic time.

Northeastern Canada 38°F Warmer Than Usual For An Entire Month This Winter

by: WeatherDem

Thu Jan 27, 2011 at 15:04:49 PM MST

The climate change denial zombies love to point out snowstorms and cold air outbreaks in the U.S. during winter.  They somehow think it means their patron saint James Inhofe was correct when he stated that global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on mankind.  While they're busy pointing out that yes, indeed, it does snow in winter, they try very hard to ignore the fact that seas that should be frozen by December 1st remain unfrozen in late January.  Has it been cold along the eastern U.S.?  Yes, 5-11°F below average for the 30-day period between 17 December 2010 to 15 January 2011.  During that same time, however, northeastern Canada witnessed surface temperatures from 16°F to greater than 38°F above average - for 30 days!  Recall that in my write-up of NASA's and NOAA's global temperature analysis for 2010, both agencies identified December as being among the 25 warmest Decembers on record globally.  Despite one of the strongest La Ninas on record and a slow emergence from the sun's latest cycle minimum, December was still warm compared to over 100 years of global temperature records at 0.67°F above average.  One of the drawbacks of looking at the global average is the possibility of masking averages that might indicate something important occurring over smaller regions - like northeast Canada.