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arctic sea ice 
Tue Feb 22, 2011 at 12:34:05 PM MST
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I've written about Arctic sea ice conditions for a couple of years now. As I've written new posts, I've tried to include information regarding the science behind the conditions being written. 2010 was a particularly bad year for Arctic ice, as conditions were recorded to be well below average conditions for months at a time. Arctic ice in September 2010 challenged the record low minimum extent observed in the modern era in 2007. My summary conclusion after paying attention to Arctic sea ice is this: the Arctic has entered into a new climatic regime. Conditions are now regularly quite different than those observed in the past couple hundred years. I'm going to provide a broader look at this topic in this post.
When I have written about climatic changes, especially in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 4th Assessment Report Physical Science Basis (IPCC 4AR WG1), I have increasingly mentioned the disturbing fact that the IPCC's projections were far too conservative to be of real use to policy makers. The reason is both simple and complex. Simply put, the IPCC focused on moderate greenhouse pollution scenarios that were better researched. The biggest problem with that is the globe's actual emissions path is following the worst-case scenario (A1FI) considered by the IPCC 4AR (courtesy of Hansen and Sato; data through 2010):
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Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 17:11:10 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of September 2010 is once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent is far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent is above average, but not nearly so much as was the case at the beginning of August. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent has fallen to ~18 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
Each month and each year that goes by provides additional proof that the Arctic has entered into a new state; a different state than has existed for 1,000 years or more. Monthly and yearly weather conditions have varied considerably over the past few years, as one would expect, but the end result has been nearly the same regardless of any specific condition: Arctic sea ice is declining year-over-year. It is declining at a rate that exceeds scientific estimates from just a few years ago. Climate change deniers keep prattling on about increasing sea ice, in direct contradiction to the physical realities before them. I think most of the areas that have sea ice this September will not have sea ice by 2020. Specific weather or geologic events might delay the year that occurs slightly, but I don't think it will take too much longer to witness an Arctic Ocean that is essentially ice-free.
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Wed May 05, 2010 at 15:41:46 PM MST
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The state of polar sea ice in March 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology. As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe's sea ice increases in Mar/Apr.
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Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 16:51:47 PM MST
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The state of polar sea ice in March 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology. As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe's sea ice increases in March. The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15.25 million sq. km., compared to 15.75 million sq. km. normally.
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