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Global Warming 
Sun Dec 19, 2010 at 15:07:44 PM MST
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( - promoted by Fong)
[Updated to include more complete context and to provide a link showing what 10ft of sea level rise looks like.]
Until just a few years ago, scientists were unsure why the global energy budget seemed to indicate that an enormous amount of energy couldn't be accounted for. Incoming and outgoing radiation is fairly straightforward to measure and a simple energy budget is easy to calculate. Accounting for all of the movement of energy within Earth's climate system imposes a great deal of complexity into the process. Still, numerous attempts were made to try to track down what was growing into a very large amount of energy: was it erroneous measurements or calculations, or did we remain woefully ignorant of significant physical processes?
Then in 2009, two major papers were published that closed the majority of the unaccounted for energy in the climate system. The excess energy was being stored as heat in the ocean, specifically the deep ocean. The volume of the Earth's oceans is estimated to be 1.332×109 km3. That is obviously a very large volume within which energy can be stored. What has happened over the course of the past century or so is warmer and warmer water has been forced down to the bottom of the world's oceans. Usually, warm water rises, but the water in question is just above the freezing point of fresh water. At those temperatures, salinity has an increased role in controlling density. Water sinks when sea ice forms because sea ice is made up of only pure water, leaving excess salt in the remaining ocean water. As the salinity increases, the density also increases. Water with higher density than what is surrounding it sinks and then is transported by ocean currents around the world.
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Tue Dec 14, 2010 at 18:17:11 PM MST
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A rather stunning piece of news was released by NASA earlier this week that received absolutely no attention by corporate stenographers. According to NASA, global average temperatures for November 2010 were higher than any other November in recorded history. Furthermore, the likelihood that 2010 will end up as the warmest calendar year on record to date increased. Recent months have seen consecutive 12-month periods rank as the hottest on record already. But people tend to think along calendar date lines, so perhaps 2010 ranking at or near the top of the recorded history list will help spur folks to action.
Let's start with November 2010 by itself. November's global average temperatures were 0.74C above normal (1951-1980), according to NASA. The warmest regions on Earth are exactly where climate models have been projecting the most warmth to occur for years: high latitudes (think Arctic & Antarctic Circles). The past three months have a +0.63C temperature anomaly. And the latest 12-month period (Dec.2009-Nov.2010) had a +0.65C temperature anomaly, the warmest on record.
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Sat Dec 04, 2010 at 11:41:16 AM MST
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A set of papers were temporarily made available to the general public in advance of the COP16 meeting in Cancun. They present quite a sobering view on just how close we are to locking the planet into dangerous global warming scenarios. One of the papers has this critical set of statements:
The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 [industrialized] and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.
The significance of that first statement cannot be overstated. For the first time, a research group has made the assessment that, despite the climate research community's decades' worth of warnings, policy makers have nearly locked the globe into a significant warming scenario.
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Sun Nov 28, 2010 at 13:10:51 PM MST
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If you've experienced Colorado weather since this summer, you've probably noticed that we've been warmer and drier than normal. The monsoon never really kicked in; September 2010 was the 112th warmest and 18th driest (out of 116) September on record; October was the 102nd warmest October on record (with average precipitation state-wide); November is going to come close to average for temperature, and could do so for precipitation, though the northwest mountains have received above-average precipitation while the Front Range continues to track well below average.
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Thu Nov 11, 2010 at 13:12:31 PM MST
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Somehow, the potential collapse of our civilization as well as global ecosystems isn't a good enough argument for Republican Teabaggers, beholden to their dirty energy corporate masters, to take action in the global warming arena. For a few paltry thousand of dollars per Representative and Senator, but millions upon millions in slick advertising, dirty energy interests have delayed and obstructed meaningful national efforts to clean up our act before it's too late. All too often, Republican Teabaggers use the "economic destruction" talking point to convince the public that we just. can't. take. action.
Just how "destructive" would action actually be? Far less expensive than doing nothing, to be honest. Action won't be free. But inaction will be many times more destructive to our economy. And after spending much, much more money, societies would likely unravel and global ecosystems would likely collapse. That's how absolutely stupid Republican Teabagger efforts to delay action on global warming is: it will cost us more and we could end up with broken societies and a planet that's harder to live on. Or, we could take some action now and our societies will stay strong and our planet will remain mostly inhabitable. Beyond being able to live and do so in a civilized society, taking action would actually make economies stronger, something that should easily resonate in today's world.
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Fri Oct 29, 2010 at 08:46:12 AM MST
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They say in the Mountain West that whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting. This simple saying shows how little water there really is and how critical it is a semi-arid environment like Colorado. There are more law practices that deal with water rights here than anywhere else in the United States. However what is the normal way of life for the Rockies might become the norm for large parts of the country and the world.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has released a new study combining 22 climate models. These models are not looking at global warming, but rather the chance of increased drought world wide as temperatures climb. (Just a quick aside, you see real scientists aren't falling for the "debate" meme that climate change deniers push. They know what is going on and have moved on to what will happen)
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Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 15:49:58 PM MST
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(I know it's a couple weeks later than October 4th. The details are relevant as of that date or earlier. Hopefully next month's will be "on time". - promoted by WeatherDem)
The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of October 2010 was once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent was far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent wass above average, but not nearly so much as was the case in the Arctic. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent fell to ~17.5 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
This post will mostly concentrate on the extremely poor conditions found in the Arctic this fall. Antarctic conditions are not as extreme, largely and ironically thanks to the ozone hole over the continent which has kept stratospheric temperatures much cooler than they otherwise would be. Eventually, our forcing leading to global warming will overwhelm the ozone hole cooling effect (and the ozone hole will gradually be "healed" anyway), which will cause long-term changes to Antarctica just like the Arctic.
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Wed Oct 20, 2010 at 15:49:35 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of October 2010 was once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent was far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent wass above average, but not nearly so much as was the case in the Arctic. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent fell to ~17.5 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
This post will mostly concentrate on the extremely poor conditions found in the Arctic this fall. Antarctic conditions are not as extreme, largely and ironically thanks to the ozone hole over the continent which has kept stratospheric temperatures much cooler than they otherwise would be. Eventually, our forcing leading to global warming will overwhelm the ozone hole cooling effect (and the ozone hole will gradually be "healed" anyway), which will cause long-term changes to Antarctica just like the Arctic.
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Tue Oct 19, 2010 at 10:38:45 AM MST
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I'm somewhat disappointed that so many Kansans reject the reality of global warming, especially considering that their state could easily and permanently return to Dust Bowl conditions if no action is taken now, but was pleased to read about efforts to green their communities based on other incentives. While Kansans might not be taking action for the same reasons I am (or at least reasons in the same order of priority), the fact remains that they're taking action. This is really good news for everybody except for the dirty energy corporations and those who defend them with uber-religious zeal.
The Climate and Energy Project has helped 6 Kansas towns reduce their energy use by as much as 5% compared to nearby areas. That's a significant step forward for those towns. Why did they do it?
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Sat Oct 09, 2010 at 09:31:06 AM MST
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For those of us living in Colorado, we know that this summer was warmer and drier than normal. We further know that September was one of the warmest and driest on record. And just like the rest of the world, if we don't stop forcing the climate system with our global warming pollution, this summer and this September will become the new normal. Even hotter and drier years are on tap if that happens.
I'm going to start on a local level. The Denver metro area recorded its 5th driest and 7th warmest September on record in 2010. The climatological period is 1971 to 2000; the length of reliable records date back to 1872. September 2010 was thus in the top 5 driest and top 10 warmest out of more than 125 other Septembers. In other words, it was very significant. Some of the details of that warmth should be noted:
THERE WERE 8 NINETY DEGREE DAYS WHICH WAS 6 ABOVE THE NORM. FOR THE SEASON NOW...THERE HAVE BEEN 49 90 DEGREE DAYS WHICH IS 16 ABOVE NORMAL. ONE NOTEWORTHY STATISTIC WAS THAT DURING SEPTEMBER 2010 THERE WERE 25 DAYS THAT RECORDED TEMPERATURES OF 80 DEGREES OR HIGHER. ACCORDING TO LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORDS...THAT IS THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF 80 DEGREE TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER IN DENVER SINCE 1872.
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Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 10:44:32 AM MST
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You have likely heard or read by now that the first 8 months of global temperature in 2010 were the warmest of any such period in recorded history. Unlike earlier months this year, I've started to see more coverage of this in the corporate media. Unfortunately, the coverage I have seen has been short and lacking in critical context. Most of the coverage has actually been of anecdotal situations, like the record-shattering 2010 Russian heat wave. Stories about the above-average Atlantic hurricane season and the Pakistani floods leaving tens of millions displaced have typically not included much, if any, notation that record heat has been recorded across the globe.
NOAA recorded the 3rd warmest August on record; the 2nd warmest Jun-Aug on record; and Jan-Aug 2010 tied the same time period from 1998 as the warmest on record. The most intense El Nino in recorded history occurred in 1997-1998, which helped push global temperatures to record levels. The El Nino of 2009-2010 wasn't nearly as strong, but added to the background warming brought about by global warming to match the warmest Jan-Aug in modern history.
August 2010
NASA's global analysis reported a +0.67°C (+1.206°F) surface temperature anomaly for August 2010 (over the 1951-1980 base period). August 2010 had the 7th highest anomaly of Augusts in the NASA dataset, according to NASA's GISS dataset.
NOAA's global analysis reported a +0.6°C (+1.08°F) surface temperature anomaly for August 2010. According to the NOAA methodology, the two warmer Augusts observed were in 1998 (+1.3°F) and 2009 (+0.62°C or +1.12°F).
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Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 17:11:10 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of September 2010 is once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent is far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent is above average, but not nearly so much as was the case at the beginning of August. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent has fallen to ~18 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
Each month and each year that goes by provides additional proof that the Arctic has entered into a new state; a different state than has existed for 1,000 years or more. Monthly and yearly weather conditions have varied considerably over the past few years, as one would expect, but the end result has been nearly the same regardless of any specific condition: Arctic sea ice is declining year-over-year. It is declining at a rate that exceeds scientific estimates from just a few years ago. Climate change deniers keep prattling on about increasing sea ice, in direct contradiction to the physical realities before them. I think most of the areas that have sea ice this September will not have sea ice by 2020. Specific weather or geologic events might delay the year that occurs slightly, but I don't think it will take too much longer to witness an Arctic Ocean that is essentially ice-free.
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Sat Jul 17, 2010 at 07:00:00 AM MST
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The first half of 2010 has been the hottest globally in recorded history. A small change from last month: I briefly saw this headline at the top of a corporate media outlet: MSNBC. I should have taken a screen-shot because I saw it at 10:45P local time last night and it had been replaced by 11:00P when I looked again. So it would be untruthful to claim, for this month at least, that you couldn't have seen this story covered in a prominent way by the corporate media. I will lament that it took four straight months of record warmth before they did, however. I will also lament that it was replaced, nearly in the middle of night, by other headlines within minutes - short shrift for such an important topic.
In a similar fashion as last month, the NOAA analysis of global temperatures have marked the warmest month of June, the warmest 3-month April to June period and, along with NASA, the warmest 6-month January to June period in recorded human history. That makes for one heck of a headline, doesn't it?
June 2010
NASA's global analysis reported a +0.59°C (+1.062°F) surface temperature anomaly for June 2010 (over the 1951-1980 base period). June 2010 joined June 2005 as the third highest anomaly in the NASA dataset, behind the record anomaly from 1998 of 0.69°C (1.24°F) and the 0.62°C (1.116°F) anomaly from 2009, according to NASA's GISS dataset.
NOAA's global analysis reported a +0.68°C (+1.224°F) surface temperature anomaly for June 2010. According to the NOAA methodology, the next warmest June was observed in 2005: +0.66°C (+1.188°F).
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Sat Jul 03, 2010 at 07:00:00 AM MST
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I meant to cross-post this earlier in the week when I finished writing it for my blog. Oh well - hopefully it makes for some interested weekend reading.
The June 2010 issue of Scientific American had two climate-related pieces in it that I thought were worth discussing.
Polar Meltdown
The first dealt with 12 potential events, their likelihood of occurring by 2050 and some of their effects. The front cover lists 'Polar Meltdown' last among the 12. The article has 'Polar Meltdown" as the 8th event, despite its likelihood (which the author places between '50-50' and 'almost certain'); I don't really understand how they decided to organize the events. I mention these details first because more of the general public reads Scientific American than journals or even climate-related blogs. Given the nature of the effects - vastly more negative than positive - I would personally prefer to see this catastrophic event listed first both on the front cover and in the article since every day we don't reduce our emissions means a polar meltdown becomes more and more likely. Interestingly, their online version has this event first, which is good news.
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Sat Jun 26, 2010 at 07:00:00 AM MST
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The first five months of 2010 have been the warmest in recorded history. But have you seen that story covered by the corporate media? Nope - and you aren't likely to any time soon either ... at least until the records become so widespread and intense that there's no longer much we can do about them.
Both the NASA and NOAA analyses of global temperatures have marked the warmest month of May, the warmest 3-month March to May period and the warmest 5-month January to May period in recorded human history. Both datasets go back 131 years into the past. The warmest month, 3-month and 5-month periods out of 131 other years has been reached. Perhaps if the highest scoring Super Bowl in history had just occurred, some corporate entity might be interested in covering it.
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Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 10:07:29 AM MST
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I didn't issue this earlier this month because I was waiting for the NSIDC monthly report, which was issued during a well-deserved vacation. I had originally written most of it to reflect conditions in early June, but apparently forgot to download the necessary graphics to complete the post. As such, I'm updating some of it for conditions through yesterday, which have only grown worse in the Arctic region. I'll issue a similar post in early July to get back on my regular schedule.
The state of polar sea ice in mid-June 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000). The Antarctic sea ice extent is rebounding very nicely from its Southern Hemispheric fall minimum. It has passed the climatological median and is approaching the +2 standard deviation (there is much more ice than is normal for this time of year). The Arctic sea ice extent is a different story altogether, however. Conditions there are the worst on record for June, beating out years such as 2006 and 2007 for record low extent in recent days, as this time series shows.
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