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Arctic ice 
Thu Jun 14, 2012 at 09:26:00 AM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice area in early June 2012 has once again fallen below climatologically normal conditions (1979-2009). Arctic sea ice loss is primarily responsible for this change in condition since just last month. Arctic sea ice melted quickly in May because it was thinner than usual; Antarctic sea ice has refrozen at a near normal rate during the late austral autumn. Polar sea ice recovered from an extensive deficit of -2 million sq. km. area three months ago to a +750,000 sq. km. anomaly one to two months ago before falling back to a -1 million sq. km. deficit. After starting the year at a deficit last year, sea ice area spent an unprecedented length of time near the -2 million sq. km. deficit in the modern era in 2011. Generally poor environmental conditions established and maintained this condition, predominantly across the Arctic last year. The last time global sea ice area remained near 19 million sq. km. through May was in 2007, when the Arctic extent hit its modern day record minimum.
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Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 10:36:46 AM MST
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I haven't written about polar ice conditions for a few months due to lack of time thanks to school. Hopefully my time availability moving forward will be high enough to keep this series going.
The state of global polar sea ice area in early December 2011 has temporarily returned to near climatologically normal conditions (1979-2009). Arctic sea ice has recovered very quickly after starting the freeze season slowly and Antarctic sea ice is benefiting from weather conditions preventing extensive melt at the edges in much the same way as it did last year at the same time. Since my last post (covering August conditions), polar sea ice has generally recovered from an extensive deficit of negative 2 million sq. km. The long time that sea ice area spent near this dramatic condition is unprecedented in the modern era. Poor conditions established this development across the Arctic this year.
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Tue Jul 19, 2011 at 15:14:26 PM MST
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As Arctic ice thins and melts more and more every year, polar bear cub mortality is rising. Compared to cubs that don't have to swim as far to reach sea ice, which had a 19% mortality rate, cubs that are being forced to swim for days without reaching ice had a 45% mortality rate in a recent study.
With less body fat, the cubs can't maintain their internal body heat as long as adults and they aren't as buoyant in the water. The cubs either drown because they can't keep their noses above water or they succumb to the colder water.
I will point out that this is only one species. There are many other species we didn't even know existed that are under similar pressures from our greenhouse pollution. On top of that, there are yet more species whose fate are being sealed every day we don't reduce that pollution.
The Anthropocene is underway. What happens in this Epoch is up to us.
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Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:49:28 AM MST
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Most of the projections in the science portion of the IPCC's 2007 4th Assessment Report have been shown many times since its issuance to be too conservative. Temperatures have risen faster; ice (sea- and land-based) has melted faster; ocean acidification and warming has happened faster, the number of extreme weather events has increased faster, etc.
I've written before about most of these. I will take this space to write once again about polar ice melting faster than projected (according to observations) and the impact that will have on global coastlines.
According to the executive summary of a new assessment of Arctic climate, the international Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) reports that Arctic temperatures in the past six years were higher than at any time since measurements began in 1880. Moreover, feedback mechanisms have already started.
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Tue Mar 08, 2011 at 22:02:17 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice area at the end of February 2011 is troublesome: well below climatological conditions continue to persist (1979-2009). Sea ice in the Arctic continues to track significantly below average, setting a record minimum for the month in the modern era. Antarctic sea ice continued to hover near record low extent values during February. Just as it did during early 2006, global sea ice area has double-dipped during the yearly minimum. Instead of clearly rebounding from that low, as it usually has in the past 40 years, global sea ice is clearly characterized yet again by new conditions. As of this writing, the global area is -1.4 million sq. km. below average.
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Thu Jan 13, 2011 at 15:55:28 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice area at the beginning of 2011 continues the trend present throughout most of 2010: well below climatological conditions (1979-2009). Sea ice in the Arctic continues to track far below average while Antarctic sea ice has tracked closer to average from above average the past couple of months. Overall, the rate at which Arctic sea ice is refreezing and Antarctic ice is melting is not out of the ordinary. The locations where freezing and melting is occurring is once again news this month. Global sea ice is rapidly decreasing, as is normal for this time of year due to Antarctic environmental conditions. The value of global sea ice area has already fallen below the average level of 16 million sq. km. The yearly absolute minimum should occur within the next month or so, at which time we'll be able to determine whether 2011's minimum is more like 2005, 2009 and 2010 (~15 million sq. km.) or whether 2011's minimum is more like 2006 and 2007 (~14.5 million sq. km.).
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Thu Sep 09, 2010 at 17:11:10 PM MST
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The state of global polar sea ice at the beginning of September 2010 is once again very poor compared to climatological conditions (1979-2008). The Arctic ice extent is far, far below average for this time of year. The Antarctic sea ice extent is above average, but not nearly so much as was the case at the beginning of August. Unfortunately, global sea ice extent has fallen to ~18 million sq. km., something that has happened in only 2 previous Septembers: in 2007 and 2008. The Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route are largely free of ice, allowing the Arctic Ocean to potentially be circumnavigated.
Each month and each year that goes by provides additional proof that the Arctic has entered into a new state; a different state than has existed for 1,000 years or more. Monthly and yearly weather conditions have varied considerably over the past few years, as one would expect, but the end result has been nearly the same regardless of any specific condition: Arctic sea ice is declining year-over-year. It is declining at a rate that exceeds scientific estimates from just a few years ago. Climate change deniers keep prattling on about increasing sea ice, in direct contradiction to the physical realities before them. I think most of the areas that have sea ice this September will not have sea ice by 2020. Specific weather or geologic events might delay the year that occurs slightly, but I don't think it will take too much longer to witness an Arctic Ocean that is essentially ice-free.
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Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 10:07:29 AM MST
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I didn't issue this earlier this month because I was waiting for the NSIDC monthly report, which was issued during a well-deserved vacation. I had originally written most of it to reflect conditions in early June, but apparently forgot to download the necessary graphics to complete the post. As such, I'm updating some of it for conditions through yesterday, which have only grown worse in the Arctic region. I'll issue a similar post in early July to get back on my regular schedule.
The state of polar sea ice in mid-June 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000). The Antarctic sea ice extent is rebounding very nicely from its Southern Hemispheric fall minimum. It has passed the climatological median and is approaching the +2 standard deviation (there is much more ice than is normal for this time of year). The Arctic sea ice extent is a different story altogether, however. Conditions there are the worst on record for June, beating out years such as 2006 and 2007 for record low extent in recent days, as this time series shows.
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Wed May 05, 2010 at 15:41:46 PM MST
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The state of polar sea ice in March 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology. As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe's sea ice increases in Mar/Apr.
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Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 16:51:47 PM MST
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The state of polar sea ice in March 2010 is fairly good compared to climatological conditions (1979-2000), which strongly contrasts with the past few months when global conditions were below climatology. As it has done this time of year for a few years in a row, the global sea ice extent increased to the point where it is near climatological values, as this graph demonstrates. The anomalies observed in 2006 and 2007 become more obvious each time the globe's sea ice increases in March. The most recent data show that global sea ice covers ~15.25 million sq. km., compared to 15.75 million sq. km. normally.
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