Taking into consideration peterco's comment about CO05 voting 68% Obama, he gets the 3-1 split there. Adding in the statewide proportional allocation, we get the following delegate count:
- 36 Obama
- 19 Clinton
- 15 Superdelegates
The Republican primaries are winner take all, but the Democratic primaries have more complicated rules on how the delegates are apportioned. In Colorado it is pretty difficult for either Clinton or Obama to have a blowout, so the most likely scenario is within 16-20 either way. Obama has a shot at winning 20-16 or 19-17. Hillary has to fight to get an 18-18.
It is possible to win more delegates while losing the popular vote, like Clinton did in Nevada. Charlie Cook gives the example of Tennessee, where despite losing by 15 points Obama's strength in certain districts would give him a majority of delegates.
This game plays out favorably for Obama in Colorado
Colorado has 36 delegates, allocated as follows:
- CO01 6 delegates, Denver
- CO02 6 delegates, Boulder, Dillon, Resort areas
- CO03 5 delegates, Pueblo, Grand Junction, West
- CO04 5 delegates, Ft Collins, Greeley, Plains
- CO05 4 delegates, Colorado Springs
- CO06 5 delegates, Aurora, Douglas & Arapahoe County
- CO07 5 delegates, Arvada, N Jeffco & Adams County
In the odd numbered districts, winning 50.1% of the caucus attendees wins the delegate count 3-2.
The 6 delegate districts are divided 3-3, unless one of the candidates breaks 58%, in which case the delegate splits are 4-2. The 4 delegate district splits 2-2, unless one candidate gets to 62.5%, which starts to be a lot harder.
If Obama's support in Denver & Boulder goes above the 58% mark, something that seems possible, he comes away with a 4 delegate lead.
For Clinton to tie the delegate count, she has to win all four of the five delegate districts.
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