December 2007 straw poll plots

by: WeatherDem

12/21/07 @ 04:23:18 PM MST

Below are the results from the latest straw polls on both SquareState (h/t Luis) and DailyKos.  Kos put up two this month, and they continue to show movement as candidates try to garner attention.  The first dKos poll results are here and the second set are here.

There is a mini-Dodd surge in the most recent polls, as a result of his actions related to the FISA - telecom immunity episode.

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BTW, did anyone notice the 5,000th diary on SS?
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As I did last month, I've ordered this month's results in descending vote or percentage order.

There's additional evidence that despite how rational we might want to be, emotion plays an important part in who we say we like.  It leads me to wonder what will happen in the Congress next year.  I know I wouldn't mind Sen. Dodd continuing to stand up for the Constitution.

SquareState Results
Edwards has maintained a long-term average at SquareState of just under 40% support.  Starting from earlier this year, Dodd has steadily increased his support - now at about 20%.  Interestingly, Obama's support has decreased over this year - from ~40% to something under 20% recently.  I'll expand on this a little more below.  Kucinich keeps rising above 10% support and then moving back down.  It almost looks cyclical to me.

DailyKos Results
Once the October Dodd bounce went away, Edwards returned to his long-term average of nearly 40% support at DailyKos also.  Similarly, Obama's support has stabilized at just under 30%.  Dodd's support has increased more slowly than at SquareState - clocking in at about 10% in the past few months.  Clinton and Kucinich are fading slowly as we move closer to the Iowa caucuses.

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Okay, back to the item I mentioned above: Obama's netroots support being interesting to me.  Earlier today, I went to OpenSecrets and examined their data on donations to presidential candidates from Colorado.  Obama has raised $1,205,960, far outpacing Clinton at $519,247, Richardson at $358,725, and Edwards at $150,785.  Heck, for comparison sake, Tancredo raised $144,470.  This seems like two different stories to me.

Now, the easiest explanation is the lack of participants in the straw poll.  I know how unrepresentative those results are.  But I'm curious if there's a narrative that can be described and what it might be.  I don't recall seeing poll results for just Colorado.  The netroots straw polls certainly don't agree with the national polls or the early state poll that I remember seeing.

I'm left wondering what the results of our caucus will be and if it will make a bit of difference by the time it comes around.

By the way, Romney has raised $677,293 from Colorado and Huckabee has garnered $16,500.  Food for thought.

As Kos puts out additional straw polls, I'll update the graphs.

Happy Holidays!!!