Paccione, Perlmutter Lead in New Independent Poll

You're too quick, (0.00 / 0)

I was just about to diary this.

Although it's not a campaign-sponsored poll, we should be wary of the specific numbers.  They pushed those who declared for Eidsness and counted most of them as Paccione or Muskrat voters, while I think Eidsness may get 8-9% in the end.

But it's the same methodology the poll used in August, when it showed Muskrat with a 6-point lead.  So the trend is trustworthy.  And I really like the way it is pointing.

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by: lalo @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:45:15 PM CST

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

I haven't looked at the internal's yet in my attempt to get this up quick (I have to look like I know stuff, right? :P).

But, what's important I think is the trend, not the hard numbers.

What I think is true, though, is whomever ends up winning this race is not going to be above 50%.  Eidness is going to be a factor no matter how you slice it.

SoapBlox - the new blog framework.

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by: pacified @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:46:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

And it doesn't hurt that (0.00 / 0)

the Coloradoan itself chose to endorse Eric Eidsness over Musgrave.  There are a lot of "fiscal conservatives" out there who don't appreciate Musgrave's hateful social agenda, but have too much Kool-Aid in their systems to vote for a Democrat.  He sounds very similar to Alan Schlesinger in CT if you read what he's written--he also thinks he's "taking back our country."  (Just for the country-club set, I guess.)

I note that the Green Party candidate in 2004 pulled almost 5% of the vote in CD4 without the name recognition Eidsness has and while running a very subdued campaign.  Eidsness should get 8 or 9 percent in my humble opinion.

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by: lalo @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:54:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

not to mention the tenor of the ads (0.00 / 0)

I was phone banking some Denver apartments on Saturday - a bunch of us were asked, mostly by older folks, if the 2 ladies being nasty on tv was in their district!  And we were calling mostly dems, some Us.

In a totally unrelated sidenote, Randy Rhodes is reading republican porn on the air right now.  You wouldn't believe how many of them have written horrid soft core porn in the guise of novels!

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by: tovah_dancer @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 17:16:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Reruns (0.00 / 0)

Well, might as well be.  Lynn Cheney, Scooter Libby, and Bill O'Reilly aren't exactly my cups of tea when it comes to novels.

Sick, sick, sick.  At least Webb's novel is a reality-based attempt (and apparently on some government "must-read" lists for operatives, too...).

(-6.25,-5.23) The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding. -- Justice Louis D. Brandeis

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 18:02:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

thanks for adding the co-07 tags! (0.00 / 0)

who ever did!

SoapBlox - the new blog framework.

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by: pacified @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:50:57 PM CST

I doubt Eidsness gets 10% (0.00 / 0)

As someone who used to be an active Green (and a Libertarian before that), I've learned to be VERY suspicious of poll numbers for independent candidates. As the linked Coloradoan article says, they tend to poll high and end up with less than half those numbers when the election comes around. Nader polled 8% in Colorado in 2000 and ended up with 5%, and that was unusually high. If anyone has evidence otherwise, I'd be happy to see it, but I strongly doubt Eidsness gets more than 5% of the vote.

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by: sxp151 @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:58:33 PM CST

CD-7 too close for comfort. (0.00 / 0)

There is no way that CD-7 should have a Democratic party lead of only five points, when CD-4 has a Democratic party lead of three points. 

I've heard that in major transition elections (political tsunamis so to speak), that change is biggest in the deep red or deep blue areas, as the case may be, but this is ridiculous.

It isn't as if O'Donnell has been running a first rate campaign, although he is airborn now.

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by: ohwilleke @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 16:58:51 PM CST

Kinda scary (4.00 / 1)

These polls have been all over, but I haven't seen one yet that puts O'Donnell in the lead. It's a small comfort, but it's something. This is exactly why the Perlmutter campaign and the Victory2006 folks haven't rested for a second. I believe we'll win this, but it won't be done by sitting on the couch.

(Shameless plug, but please please please if you aren't already overextended next weekend, sign up to help us out for the final 4 days! The easiest thing to do at this point is call 303-232-2491 and get signed up. Shifts and timeslots for walking and phoning are set, so you can get an assigned time even!)

Disclaimer: Yes, they pay me now. That doesn't make my actions any less sincere.

"We are not going to settle for what is, we are going to imagine what might be."- Barack Obama

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by: w0nderm0nkey @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 17:08:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Tell me about it. (0.00 / 0)

I will be going in most days from here until the end to help this race.  The response from walking a couple of precincts in Aurora has been pretty good.  Most people have voted and they voted for Ed.  At least the ones who answered the door.  But we must leave no doubt. 

If You Listen to Fools, the Mob Rules!!!!

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by: CO Democrat @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 22:30:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's Constitutent Dynamics (0.00 / 0)

This is the outfit that has consistently oversampled Republicans in CO-07.  Note the trend line favors Perlmutter in this poll.  The previous CD polls showed a dead heat and this one now shows Perlmutter building a lead.  I take it as a good sign.

Illegal is not a noun

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by: Luis @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 17:16:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I've been trying to understand CD Polling & CO-07 (0.00 / 0)

I've also noticed that CD attributes a higher-than-expected Republican advantage in CD-07. While this seems suspicious, I feel like I don't know enough about their polling methodology and turnout model to criticize confidently.With 900 people polled, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they are professional on these two things.

I feel less secure about the fact that they only call people who have been registered at least for the past two elections. So, their calling list would not be accurate w.r.t. people who have moved into the district. In CO-07 there would be more mobility in the rental areas, which are more likely to be dem, but less likely to turnout in a mid-term election. Jeffco (Wheatridge and Arvada) might be over sampled as they are older, but they are also more likely to vote.

Maybe it's a wash.

One thing for certain, in a wave year, Perlmutter should be doing better. Imagine if Fawcett were running; we'd have a blow out.

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by: MetaData @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 23:55:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think Perlmutter is running a great campaign (4.00 / 2)

He is well ahead in all of the other polls, and even Constituent Dynamics is now showing him with a lead outside of the MOE.  I think that's pretty good considering that he came out of a bruising primary and is running in a district that is a true tossup.  I also give Perlmutter credit for running his campaign in a way that will help him perform in the House, by not running away from giving undocumented immigrants a path to earned citizenship (some other candidates could learn from that, ahem) and by repeatedly hammering O'Donnell on Social Security, which will help refute any claim by Bush that the voters somehow want him to privatize SS during his last term.

I don't think Fawcett would run better in CO-07 -- he is a true Colorado Springs Democrat, running a great campaign for the district he is in.

Illegal is not a noun

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by: Luis @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 07:24:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Go Angie! (4.00 / 4)

Mary and I worked phones for Angie on Saturday, and we have given her a good chunk of money. Plus I have pushed hard for her, Ed, Bill and Jay on the air. I hope this is a dream come true. Angie is one of the best people around. GO ANGIE!

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by: jaymarvin @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 17:56:56 PM CST

Thanks, Jay! (4.00 / 3)

Thanks for coming up, brother! We've got more walkers thanks to you. I hope everyone who visits here is able to lend a hand in our final push!

Best to you,

Angie Paccione
http://angie2006.com

Help bring change to CO-04, with your generous support.

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by: Angie Paccione @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 18:00:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

On air push (4.00 / 2)

for Angie, Jay, Bill, and Ed are welcome to hear on your show, Jay.

This is serious crunch time - all these races could flip this year.  People are getting seriously disaffected with the status quo that the R's from these districts represent.  Let's show folks how adults manage the country!

A Responsible Plan for Iraq: endorsed by Jared Polis

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by: WeatherDem @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 19:15:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Listening to you down here (0.00 / 0)

in Colorado Springs. Thanks for the efforts.

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by: tjlord @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 20:39:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Jay Marvin (0.00 / 0)

needs to quit slacking......sheesh. :-)

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by: Zappatero @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 07:37:41 AM CST

[ Parent ]

oh boy (4.00 / 1)

progressnow has the latest:

SoapBlox - the new blog framework.

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by: pacified @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 20:52:25 PM CST

great video (0.00 / 0)

but they need to edit it to read district 4 instead of district 5!

and I think they should've demanded ID from the 'handlers' and called the cops on them, but that's just me . . . .

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by: tovah_dancer @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 21:14:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

d'oh! (0.00 / 0)

cd-4 v. cd-5

SoapBlox - the new blog framework.

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by: pacified @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 21:15:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Best of both worlds (0.00 / 0)

hey, we attack MM by name, and show the blatant hypocrisy of R's in "CD-5".

Don't fix it!

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by: Zappatero @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 07:39:32 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ouch... (0.00 / 0)

That's pretty embarrassing.

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by: Ralphie @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 21:16:27 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This bit posted on TPM (0.00 / 0)

It's great to see that Josh Marshall is paying attention to CO-04 (or is it CO-05?).  About a week ago, he had listed the Paccione-Musgrave race as one he would be watching.  I am starting to believe it could happen.

Check it out here: http://www.talkingpo...  Josh is one of the best.

Go Angie!

-- de omnibus disputandum

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by: SadSackSuperman @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 22:46:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Now it's over at DailyKos! (0.00 / 0)

CO-04 is really becoming a National Story, at least in the dreaded Blogosphere!

-- de omnibus disputandum

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by: SadSackSuperman @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 07:12:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Don't start the celebrations yet. (0.00 / 0)

The Repugs will likely come out a little better at the ballot box than in the opinion polls. (I think it has more to do with shame about telling another human being what they actually think than microtargeting and GOTV. In the secrecy of the voting booth the unvarnished resentment and backwardness comes out.) Ditto Ford. Ditto Webb.

There is no elite, so take your place in the driver's seat.

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by: Stagarite @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 23:22:12 PM CST

The good news... (0.00 / 0)

...is that the Google bomb appears to be working. ROD's Panama  junket is now #7 on the search engine.

There is no elite, so take your place in the driver's seat.

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by: Stagarite @ Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 23:26:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Cook Political just upgraded CO-04 & CO-05 (0.00 / 0)

Charlie Cook just upgraded CO-04 from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up" and upgraded CO-05 from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican".

Oh, and he also upgraded the Alaska and Idaho governor's races to "Toss up". Imagine that, we are actually competitive in Alaska and Idaho. There are some other good ones that got upgraded too, Pombo (CA-11), Cubin (WY-AL) and Schmidt (OH-02) all went to "Toss up". Bilbray (CA-50) and (NE-03) just went to "Lean Republican" from "Likely Republican". I cannot believe that Wyoming is a tossup (I guess thats what happens when a candidate threatens to slap a disabled man in a wheelchair) and that we are competitive in Nebraska.

It amazes me that a week before the elections, the field is still expanding.

http://cookpolitical...

Sometimes the pool-pah exceeds the power of humans to comment. -Bokonon

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by: Squirrel2634 @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 00:31:09 AM CST

Cross tabs for Angie look really good (0.00 / 0)

Angie is doing well across the boards, notably among women. The Republicans have a serious gender shortfall. I think this is being driven by the right-wing lunatics, the macho posturing, anti-birth control and attack ads. The GOP civil war is driving out the women.

The CD Polling crosstabs for Angie show Ft Collins at a PVI of D+24 and the ROD at R+6. Again this doesn't make sense. Ft Collins is nowhere near that Liberal (much as I would wish it were so....I'm a homie), and the ROD ( Weld, Longmont and the Eastern plains) is much more Republican than six points.

Are those numbers twisted?  I mean, the Eastern plains of CO-04 shows very high Republican registration and voting, while Larimer is moderately Republican.

The PVI must be self-referential, i.e. internal to the district, rather than compared to a national measure, like how the nation voted on Bush-Kerry.

Or else, the PVI measurement is based on CD's internal polling and turnout model instead of CO-04's past electoral history.

Maybe the CO-04 PVI's help explain CO-07 Republican/Dem PVI measurements. Wheatridge is a D+7, Arvad R+5 and Aurora/Adams makes the ROD D+8, but that is only in comparison to the the wholeof CO-07, not a national standard.

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by: MetaData @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 00:33:16 AM CST

so color me stupid (0.00 / 0)

Majority Watch has these nice graphics showing the different parts of the district. Majority Watch doesn't explain the map, and I thought these were generic Partisan Voting Indices based on district registration or past presidential votign. They simply depict how well the D or R candidate is polling in that portion of the district. So, I'm slow.

If you click through the "Rounds" in CO-07 you see how Perlmutter's support improves in the different geographies. In the first polling, Perlmutter was doing well in the Jeffco portion.

But, from end August to  end October, Perlmutter has gone from a 14 pt deficit in Adams/Aurora to an 8 pt lead. That is a huge shift

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by: MetaData @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:17:28 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Splits in Jeffco (0.00 / 0)

They correlate to Senate Districts.

One section is SD20 and SD21 (the southern Jeffco part), and the other D section is Adams County.  The rest is the northern Jeffco.

Sheridan is the eastern boundary of SD 20 and also the edge of Adams county, so that makes sense.  The split in Jeffco matches the northern boundary of SD 20. 

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by: peterco @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 09:48:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

corrected video (4.00 / 1)

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by: johne @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 09:58:02 AM CST

Paccione vs. Muskrat now "a toss-up" (0.00 / 0)

Probably as a result of this poll, the Cook Political Report has upgraded the CO-04 congressional race from "leans Republican" to "toss-up."

Go Angie!

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by: lalo @ Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 15:11:00 PM CST