| These models are pretty grim. They are based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI for still not very short). This index measures severity of drought by assigning a positive number if the climate is unusually wet and a negative number if the climate is unusually dry. Numbers below -4 are considered to be in extreme drought.
Now take a look at this chart prepared by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, based on the model projections:
As you can see the projections expect much of the United States to be in a state of chronic severe drought between 2030 and 2039. The further out one goes the worse these projections get, but given the problem with predicting change over many decades even the NCAR Rep says that we should take those with a grain of salt.
Still, if we confine ourselves the prediction for just the next thirty years it bodes for a lot of trouble. The bread basket of the United State is the mid-west. Once you get passed the Mississippi and before you get to the Rockies is some of our biggest agricultural lands. If this prediction is accurate, by the 2030's this area will be constantly in a state drought. The days of pouring water and fertilizer on the soil of the heart land may very well be over. If there is no water, there is no crops.
Another issue is the impact of lack of water on development. Here in the Rockies we have been ignoring this vital commodity as it affects expansion of homes and businesses. A recent study of tree rings shows that the last 60 years in the Rocky Mountain West were the wettest in nearly 600 years. Even though we have what is considered a very dry climate for the rest of the nation, while the Rockies have been booming they have been depending on a climate that was, itself, and aberration.
The more normal climate of the Rockies is much drier. The data from the tree ring study also supports the conclusion of the climate models. Between 900 CE and 1300 CE there was what is called the Middle Ages Warm Period. This was a time in Europe when temperatures were abnormally high. During this time in the Rocky Mountains there was an extended period of very extreme drought. Following that logic, as the planet warms from carbon dioxide and other green house gasses, the Rockies will become drier and drier.
All of this leads us to the problem of climate change denial. It is fun (or would be if Wingnuts were not serious about it) to laugh when climate change deniers point to a bunch of snow storms are proof that there is no global warming. The thing is while we are having to have this so-called debate about the fact of climate change, things are happening to the planet that will affect everyone.
Water is a requirement for life. The state of Colorado has no rivers that flow into it, just rivers that flow out. Those rivers support places like L.A. and Phoenix, which are already built in real deserts. If no water falls in Colorado, then the farms and cities down stream from the state are in real trouble, as is Colorado.
To have to conserve and watch your water consumption is something that most people get once in a very long while. As a result we are not prepared as a nation for what extended drought might mean. In the last major drought, the city of Atlanta got down to less than two weeks worth of water in their reservoir. The plans for growth of the city had no provision for a sudden and prolonged drop in rain fall.
Most cities and towns do not have drought plans. As long as we are busy with the climate change deniers, we can't even get to planning for things that will happen even if we start to get a grip on green house gasses.
There may come a time when the hundreds of trillions of gallons in the Great Lakes become something that people stop drinking and start fighting over. Water is a requirement for life, and for development. The next time someone wants to build a sprawling new housing development, be sure to ask them where all the water for the lawns and home is going to come from. Chances are they don't know and don't care.
The floor is yours. |
