Will the real Colorado Senate poll please stand up?

by: johne

09/11/08 @ 08:21:09 PM MDT

Wadhams' take is predictable:

Wadhams also said the numbers were "solid and reliable because (David Hill) has probably done more campaigns in Colorado in the last 18 years than anybody in America.

"He's a very reputable pollster who'll not tell a client what the client wants to hear; he tells the client what is real and what truly exists," Wadhams said.

So today, the Udall camp releases their own internal poll showing Udall up by 11 (Udall holds a 45%-34% lead over Schaffer.)
press release:

"These results indicate that the attack campaign being waged by several out-of-state groups on Bob Schaffer's behalf has been strikingly ineffective so far," said Paul Harstad, CEO of Harstad Strategic Research.  "In fact, to the contrary, Mark Udall's position has actually strengthened on the exact issues these ads have sought to attack him on."

"Coloradans are looking at the record and seeing that Mark Udall stands with them, while Bob Schaffer consistently stands with the Bush administration, the big oil companies, and corrupt lobbyists like Jack Abramoff," said Udall spokeswoman Tara Trujillo.  "Schaffer and his front groups are spending millions of dollars to hide that record, but Coloradans aren't being fooled."

The poll of 752 likely Colorado voters was conducted September 7th through the 9th, and has a 3.6% margin of error.  Harstad Strategic Research has a long record of work in Colorado campaigns and issues, including serving as pollster to Senator Ken Salazar.

To that what does Wadhams say?

But Schaffer manager Dick Wadhams called the numbers "fictitious," pointing to recent polls by the Schaffer campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee showing the race in a dead heat.

How surprising Wadhams would say his poll is honest and correct and the other is fictitious.  

If we average the polls, Udall by 11 and Udall by 1, we get a 6 point advantage.  We can also look at the aggregate of all polling done on this race at pollster.com where Udall is ahead by about 4, which has both NRSC internals but not yet Udall's internal poll.

Schaffer campaign poll shows dead heat in U.S. Senate race

NRSC poll shows presidential, Senate races close in Colorado

and

Udall claims double-digit lead in new campaign poll

So the Udall poll only claims a lead, but both NRSC polls show a dead heat and a close race.  Uh-huh.

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