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by: tjlord - Nov 25
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by: johne

08/21/08 @ 10:25:01 PM MDT


A damning Washington Post article reveals it's the speculators in the oil industry squeezing up the price of our gasoline.
"It is now evident that speculators in the energy futures markets play a much larger role than previously thought, and it is now even harder to accept the agency's laughable assertion that excessive speculation has not contributed to rising energy prices," said Rep. John D. Dingell (D-Mich.). He added that it was "difficult to comprehend how the CFTC would allow a trader" to acquire such a large oil inventory "and not scrutinize this position any sooner."

The article goes on for three pages, quoting source after source, on how these firms played monopolizing middle men not to profit off the sale of the oil, but just to profit off the reselling of oil.  All this while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission  in charge of watch-dogging the industry was asleep at the helm:

The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency. That figure may rise in coming weeks as the CFTC checks the status of other big traders.

and:

CFTC documents show Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on NYMEX as prices reached record levels. By June 6, for instance, Vitol had acquired a huge holding in oil contracts, betting prices would rise. The contracts were equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil -- about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. That day, the price of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54. Oil prices eventually peaked at $147.27 a barrel on July 11 before falling back to settle at $114.98 yesterday.

Wanna know who first received an exemption to begin doing this kind of market manipulation:  E N R O N.

Yeah, I'm sure I should have been talking about McCain's latest gaff, but this seems a mite more important.

johne :: In case you were wondering, $4 gas is ENRON all over again.
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Pardon me for bursting the finger-pointing bubble... (0.00 / 0)
As much as we'd all like to find somebody to demonize for the price of gas, and speculators, those evil money-grubbers on Wall Street, are an easy target, speculators are not the demons here.  The futures markets just don't work that way.  Oil prices can't be manipulated for long periods of time by anyone other than the actual producers.  Demand is fairly predictable.  Supply is in the hands of the oil producers.

Futures prices are a function of the spot price (the price at this very moment for immediate delivery), the cost of storage between "today" and the contract expiration, and the present value of money.  The spot price, taking into account currency exchange rates and a few other factors, is essentially the same everywhere in the world.  

Speculators can artificially manipulate the price for short periods of time, but not much more than that. At the time of expiration of the futures contract, those holding long positions have to either liquidate their holdings or take delivery on 1000 barrels of oil for every contract they hold.  The inverse is true of the market shorts.  It takes many thousands of futures contracts to have any notable effect on the futures price.  

In the meantime, if the futures price gets too far out of line with the spot price, there are plenty of smart arbitrage guys willing take the other side of that trade, thereby forcing the futures price back into line with the spot price.  

So who can we pin this on?  How about the Bush administration?  Many of our current economic woes can easily be pinned on W and his cronies.  This one is no different.  Oil is traded globally in US dollars.  The exponential increase in US debt, among other things, has been crushing the value of the US dollar.  A lower US dollar means higher oil prices.  Throw in a little harsh reality of supply and demand and, voila, we have sky high oil prices.  Obama actually got some recent kudos in the WSJ, of all places, for pointing out that the weakness in the US dollar has been crippling to the US economy.

Does Wall Street need more oversight?  YES!  But at the end of the day, the price of gas is bigger than Wall Street.  The credit crisis, on the other hand, is a different story...


I've already seen that defense (0.00 / 0)
Written anonymously with no citations.
Economist.com blogs are lightly moderated debates in which journalists from The Economist Newspaper, Economist.com and the Economist Intelligence Unit post their thoughts and observations, and which are open to comment and argument from anybody who cares to intervene.

It's a blog so the cocktail weenie circuit can chit-chat.  

revolution from within

[ Parent ]
No need for a citation... (0.00 / 0)
I spent 12 years in the futures industry in "big girl" jobs that require a true depth of knowledge.  My explanation above comes from my own expertise, not from somebody else's account of how contract expiration works.



[ Parent ]
81% (0.00 / 0)
81% of futures held by speculators.  I think we know what monopolies create.  Supply has nothing to do with it.  Speculating up the price by middlemen surely cuts off the supply from those consumers who can't afford to drive to work or take their kids to school.  If supply really were an issue the millions of untapped oil leases would get drilled on instead of the oil companies asking for more and more and more.

So regardless of what your "big girl" jobs have taught you, how do you argue with 81% ?

revolution from within


[ Parent ]
Long or short positions...? (0.00 / 0)
I don't doubt that 81% of the open interest is held by speculators, but the article doesn't explicitly state that all the speculators are long futures contracts.  For every contract bought, somebody had to take the other side.  Aside from that, what is traded on the exchange floor doesn't paint the whole picture.  

Don't believe everything you read in the paper...


[ Parent ]
you know (0.00 / 0)
i'm hearing a lot of no, that's not the way it works, not possible, and you're very light on actual explanation.  Economists are worse than weather forecasters, so taking things on faith that you know what you're talking about doesn't really do it.  If you're so right and the washingtonpost article is so wrong, why not explain it to us alleged non "big girl" job having simpletons

revolution from within

[ Parent ]
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