Caucus Results And Questions

My own caucus

was almost three times 2006 turnout and overwhelmingly (75-25) Romanoff.  

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by: Fong @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 09:28:58 AM UTC

I sure hope Romanoff

can beat the Republican in November.  Otherwise we've made a mistake.

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by: GMFORD @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 11:15:43 AM UTC

As long as the party steps in to financially support him

AR would be stronger than Bennet against a Republican. He is more appealing to moderates on the issues and he is better at debates. He would smoke Norton any day of the week. All the U ladies would support him, and all the U men would look at him as though he is a role model (which makes me gag a bit-- no offense to AR). Romanoff against a Tea Party candidate would be great too because Buck would get the crazies frothed up and would alienate anyone who likes their fire dept, roads, and water treatment.  

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by: Fong @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 18:48:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another caveat...

The "party" itself is essentially a PAC, and a corporation. The GOP won't hesitate to jump on that one, if AR's campaign starts accepting these donations.

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by: Just Anita @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 14:33:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And if anyone can point to a race

where the primary winner hadn't taken PAC money and was then supported by their Party, I'd like to see that. Does Bernie Sanders take PAC money? He's not with a party but I'd like to know if he's won without it.  

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by: Fong @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 18:53:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Barack Obama

He's one...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Russ Feingold would be the other.  

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too

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by: StrykerK2 @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 02:27:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're being corrected...

Both take PACs.  

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by: Just Anita @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 14:10:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sanders....

I worked on Sanders Mayor race, as my first 3-rd party campaign in VT.  My husband and I lived there for 8 years during the 90's. Still close with Jeffords and Sanders. Sanders was first elected as Mayor of Burlington supporting State benefits for same sex partners.  I won't give you too many tips, since I'm a Bennet supporter (LOL), but the answer to your B. Sanders PAC question is "Yes".  PACs come in different shapes and sizes, just as corporate contributions come in different shapes and sizes.

Sanders contributions past and present reflect resources from "social action groups made up of progressive companies and individuals".  As such there are certainly some corporate contributions within those PAC's from "people policy oriented" businesses, like Ben and Jerry's, Cabot Cheese, Tubbs Snowshoes, etc.

Andrew's "no corporate $$" campaign is great in theory, but it dismisses people oriented businesses that are both good employers and good for our economy. His campaign strategy has backed him into a difficult position. Again, just my perspective.  

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by: Just Anita @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 14:08:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No mistakes..

Just support. The Dems have a primary, and we all have months to decide who will best represent us in Nov. It's all good.

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by: Just Anita @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 14:16:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

doesn't have to petition onto the ballot with 16%.

Maybe the D rules are different from the R rules - but the way my caucus chair explained it last night, Wiens gets delegates to county assembly because he got to "threshold:" 15%.

At county assembly to get delegates to state, same threshold.
But - to make the ballot out of State assembly, 30% threshold.

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by: MADCO @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 13:17:33 PM UTC

In practice the 15% threshold is irrelevant

unless you have lots of candidates and someone is eliminated and their delegates vote for someone else instead.

Wiens has no hope of making it onto the primary ballot without petitioning, as he needs virtually every non-Norton/non-Buck vote to get 30% in the end. In the GOP Senate primary will be Norton and Buck.  Buck has a pretty decent chance of getting the top line, as Wiens and Tidwell supporters are more likely to swing to Buck than to Norton.

Absent a really major scandal, Romanoff gets top line in the Democratic primary and Bennet gets the bottom line.

In the GOP Gov race it will be McInnis and Maes, wiht McInnis on the top line.

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by: ohwilleke @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 16:56:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm glad you clarified that

I only recently heard the 15% number from someone. I thought it was a gaffe.  

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by: Fong @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 18:28:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indeed

thanks for clarifying that

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by: Fong @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 18:49:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Romanoff's support is limited to the metro area....

The small margins between the two was a win for Bennet. Andrew's support across the State wasn't strong enough. As more people learn about Sen. Bennet, I'm confident his support will continue through County and State assemblies.  One can point to money, as being the nail that sealed the Romanoff campaign's fate.  I think it was something completely different - logic.  Sen. Bennet has been doing the job Romanoff wants to do.  Many folks decided that's not a bet they want to make, and willing to stay with a proven leader.  Just offering a different perspective to the statistics from the Western Slope.

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by: Just Anita @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 13:32:40 PM UTC

Not totally true.

I'm in Otero County where the vote went heavily for Romanoff.  Andrew has been wooing the party insiders in these rural counties for 3 years.

I like Romanoff but I hate to unseat a Senator with a good track record for a newcomer who has less name recognition.  That said, I'll campaign for the winner.

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by: GMFORD @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 13:47:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ditto

I'll campaign for the winner. But I remember that Salazar lost the caucuses too, and still ended up winning the primary. Caucuses are a very different voter population.

That said, I'm happy to see that the caucus population still received such a nice boost from all the work in 2008. I was following the Twitter #caucusCO feed last night and people everywhere seemed very passionate but also civil and inclusive. That's a win/win for the party.

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by: jnfr @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 15:02:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

@ditto

Double cheers!!

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by: Just Anita @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 16:19:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Salazar also had also previously held public office.

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by: ohwilleke @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 17:09:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're right...

The caucus results showed a lot of smaller Counties dotted around the State.  

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by: Just Anita @ Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 20:41:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure it was a win for Bennet --

although clearly a 40+% percent result at caucus is just fine for heading into the primary.

I was absolutely carpet-bombed by Bennet robocalls and mailers (as well as pro-Bennet mailers from third parties, e.g. LCV).  Compared to what I received from Romanoff's campaign, it was overwhelming ... in fact, I actually called the Bennet campaign a couple of times to request being dropped from the robocalls, since I was planning to go to caucus anyhow.

I really expected a stronger result for Bennet.

All that said, as jnfr points out, a primary is quite different than a caucus.

I, too, will energetically support the winner of the primary.  At the county assembly I'll support Romanoff.


-- Eric Johnson

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by: by foot @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 15:11:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bennet has only won 16 counties

out of 64, and the Metro region is only about 5 counties.

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by: wade norris @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 15:21:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not true.

Bennet gets just 16 counties and many have tiny delegations.

Notably, Bennet is doing best in conservative leaning counties, while Romanoff is doing better in those that lean liberal.

This was no win for Bennet.  The campaign for Bennet really had just two points: He's the incumbent because Ritter appointed him, and he has more money.  He also made no friends with the union movement as DPS superintendent.  His campaign isn't even trying to argue the Obama endorsement seriously.  Massive robocalling for Bennet also backfired.

Invisible in the numbers but visible on the ground is just how livid grass roots Democrats were at Ritter for making the Bennet appointment, and at those who believe that out of state folks can tell them who should win their primary, there is also a strong reservoir of Romanoff loyalty.

Bennet supporters, in contrast, are mostly lukewarm and reluctantly resigned to the view that a Democrat can beat Norton only with Bennet class fundraising (no one thought anyone else in the GOP field was even on the map).

One of the reasons that campaign finance is often so decisive is that it is a proxy for on the ground support.  But, this primary upsets the usual equation, because so much of Bennet's financing comes from out of state.

Bennet needs a very cynical primary electorate to win, and i seriously doubt that he will find one.

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by: ohwilleke @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 17:07:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Somewhat true but

in our caucus I saw something a little different.  A woman came up to me and said "Who is Romanoff? I've never heard of him."  Interestingly, her precinct went 100% for Romanoff so she bowed to peer pressure to vote for someone she never heard of.

I was originally planning to vote for Romanoff because all my friends and family were.  He's spent a lot of time wooing the likely caucus attendees in my county over the last 3 years.  I eventually decided to listen to my conscience and vote for Bennet and felt much happier.  I talked to others who were feeling the same as I who also voted Bennet.  The large number of uncommitted delegates says to me there are many more.

In the primary, the peer pressure effect will be removed so I think Bennet will eventually prevail.  

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by: GMFORD @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 20:50:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it will be interesting

...to see how Colorado as a whole swings in this year's general election. I know in 2008 we actually turned Jeffco blue for the first time in what? 20 or 30 years? And a lot of us here in north Westminster were out every weekend walking the neighborhoods to make that happen.

This year, impossible to say how passionate people will be and how the independents will swing. I don't think the state will pendulum back to complete conservatism, but I am not sure how well progressives will do as a whole.

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by: jnfr @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 23:39:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I grew up in Wheat Ridge aka White Ridge

and as far as I know it was wall to wall Republicans then.  However, they were Eisenhower Republicans and I find it hard to believe my parents (for example) would embrace the party that embraces the teabaggers.

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by: GMFORD @ Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 13:23:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Map...

I do want to thank all for the fabulous adult dialogue coming from all sides.  It's refreshing! This is a fantastic passionate group of involved citizens.    

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by: Just Anita @ Wed Mar 17, 2010 at 16:18:11 PM UTC