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December 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentrations: 391.80ppm

by: WeatherDem

Mon Jan 16, 2012 at 11:49:35 AM MST


The Scripps Institution of Oceanography measured an average of 391.80ppm CO2 concentration at their Mauna Loa, Hawai'i's Observatory during December 2011.  These readings are from the Scripps' dataset, not NOAA's, which was my original data source when this series began.

391.80 is the highest value for December concentrations in recorded history. Last year's 389.68 was the previous highest value ever recorded.  This December's reading is 2.12ppm higher than last year's.  As I've written before, this increase is significant.  Of course, more significant is the unending trend toward higher concentrations with time, no matter the month or specific year-over-year value.

WeatherDem :: December 2011 (Scripps) CO2 Concentrations: 391.80ppm
The yearly maximum monthly value normally occurs during May. Last year was no different: the 394.34 concentration is the highest value reported both last year and all time.  If we extrapolate last year's value out in time, it will only be 3 years until Scripp's reports 400ppm average concentration for a singular month (likely May 2015).

Judging by the year-over-year increases seen per month in the past 10 years, I predict 2012 will not see a monthly concentration below 390ppm.  I had earlier predicted that 2011′s minimum would be ~388ppm.  I overestimated the minimum somewhat since both September's and October's measured concentrations were just under 389ppm.

CO2Now has the following graph on their front page:

It shows concentrations in the Scripps dataset going back to 1958.  As I wrote above, concentrations are persistently moving upward.

Given our historical emissions to date and the likelihood that they will continue to grow at an increasing rate in the next 25 years, we will pass a number of "safe" thresholds - for all intents and purposes permanently as far as concerns our species.  It is time to start seriously investigating and discussing what kind of world will exist after CO2 concentrations peak at 850 and 1100ppm.  I don't believe the IPCC has done this to date.  To remain relevant, I think it will have to do so moving forward.

Cross-posted at WeatherDem - the blog.

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Here Is More on the Current Year
This is extremely troubling.  
There has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota during the first week of January is 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN. The warmest temperature ever recorded in Minnesota on January 5 is 57 degrees, recorded at Crookston in 1902.
...
Atmospheric circulation patterns were the most extreme on record for December measured by an index called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) according to Dr. Jeff Masters. A strong positive NAO has cold air in Canada moving offshore into the Labrador Sea while the U.S and Europe are warm. A Strongly positive NAO produces a tight pressure gradient and intense storms in the north Atlantic.
...

And, On Christmas day Norway was battered by major-hurricane strength storm Dagmar.

December 26, 2011  

One of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit Norway hammered coastal areas during the Christmas weekend and left a wide path of destruction throughout the south, west and northwest. Winds were clocked at more than 200 kilometers an hour, terrifying residents in many areas and leaving more than 100,000 homes without power.

Of course, know it's just an Al Gore political lie.  What utter tripe.


Extreme weather
was certainly in the news in 2011 and that has continued into the early part of 2012.

That said, the temperatures in the northern tier this winter are more a cause of concern than the storm affecting Norway (which is impressive, for sure).  The reason I say this is that some conditions (i.e., temperature and glacial melt) are changing at statistically significant rates while others (precipitation, hurricane strength/frequency) are not.

Unfortunately, the latter are easier for the media and public to grab onto because they're more tangible than the statistical analyses and interpretation required for the former.  I have followed developments of the NAO and AO for the past couple of winters with intense interest.  It is important to note that their relationship to other weather or climate variables is at this point almost nonexistent.  Neither are the oscillations currently predictable.


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